Keywords: Sixth Plenum of CCP’s Central Committee, People’s Congress in Liaoning Province, South China Sea, Joshua Wong’s detention in Thailand, Taiwan’s international participation.

CHINA – POLITICS

1. The Sixth Plenum of CCP’s Central Committee to be held in late October

The upcoming Sixth Plenum of CCP’s 18^th Central Committee draws attention not only because of its theme on strengthening party rule but also because of its potential indication about the future composition of China’s top decision-making organ the Politburo in the 19^th CCP’s Congress as well as the issue of leader succession after Xi Jinping.

• //The plenum, which will be held from October 24 to 27, will include the submission of a work report to the CPC Central Committee by the Political Bureau, review of key issues concerning the comprehensive and strict management of the Party, a draft on the norms of intra-Party political life under the new situation, and amendments to an intra-Party supervision regulation, according to a meeting held by the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau on Tuesday. « Each plenary session has its general function and the sixth plenum is always about developing socialist culture and ethics. And intensifying intra-Party supervision and governing the political life within the Party top the agenda of this year’s sixth plenum, » Su Wei, a professor at the Party School of the Chongqing Committee, told the Global Times.// Source: Global Times, 29 September 2016.

Hong Kong-based commentator Suen Ka Yip (孫嘉業) pointed out that Wang Qishan has been rolling out a number of new regulations on party members in the past few years and he is expected to play an important role in strengthening party discipline through more rules and regulations in the upcoming sixth plenum of the 18^th Central Committee:

• //而今次六中全會的主題是從嚴治黨，《關於新形勢下黨內政治生活的若干準則》、《中國共產黨黨內監督條例》，其中《政治生活準則》應是由主管黨務的中央書記處書記劉雲山主導，而修訂《監督條例》的主導者則是中紀委書記王岐山。按照中共的內部分工，劉雲山是中央黨的建設領導小組組長，但中共的黨建又分思想建黨與制度建黨兩部分。從字面看劉雲山應是王岐山的領導，上一屆中央黨建小組的組長就是主管黨務的時任中央書記處書記習近平，而當時的黨建小組副組長是時任中紀委書記賀國強。不過，新一屆的黨建小組除了組長是劉雲山獲官方傳媒證實外，王岐山從未以副組長身分出現過；該小組現在唯一的副組長似乎就是剛從新疆調回北京的張春賢。從現實工作層面看，劉雲山主管的中央組織部、中央宣傳部和中央黨校，似乎都主要是負責思想建黨；而王岐山統領的中紀委才是制度建黨的主角。王岐山主掌中紀委後，多番強調中紀委的職能不限於查案、抓貪官，而是要重在建章立規，即不僅要執行「家法」，更要完善「家法」。在王岐山眼中，原有的「家法」要麼過於寬鬆，要麼欠缺可操作性，難以執行，還有很多空白，因此要大修大補。近4年來，他主導下訂立或修訂了《紀律處分條例》、《廉潔自律準則》、《問責條例》、《巡視工作條例》等多項「家法」，而六中將審議的《黨內監督條例》，更被視為確保中共長期執政的重要法寶。// Source: MingPao Daily, 29 September 2016.

Xu Xing, a professor of politics at the Zhou Enlai School of Government at Nankai University, argued that stricter regulations on the Party’s members would be institutionalized during the sixth plenum. He also argued that some new issues that the Party faces include the way to manage relationship between politics and commerce, and how to make the Party abide by the law.

• // »The two documents submitted to the plenum are a sign that intensifying Party discipline is not a temporary campaign but will be institutionalized with detailed and practical regulations, » Xu Xing, a professor of politics at the Zhou Enlai School of Government at Nankai University, told the Global Times. […] The Party needs to learn from the string of campaigns and regulations on governing the Party since the 18th Party Congress as well as update guidance documents on intra-Party political life amid new and lingering issues, said Su. Su also noted the need to manage the relationship between politics and commerce and abiding by a law-based administration under the CPC’s leadership are new issues the Party faces.// Source: Global Times, 29 September 2016.

Prof. Steve Tsang, from the school of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham, argued Xi Jinping would use this plenum to clear the succession issue beyond the 19^th Party Congress. Zhang Lifan (章立凡), a party historian formerly with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, doubted whether Xi has the needed power to tackle the succession issue as well as the policy direction he proposed.

• //[a]nalysts said Xi would also use the party conclave to kick-start his preparations for a revamp of the leadership at the 19th party congress next year, when a large number of top officials are expected to retire. […] In the past four years, Xi has used anti-graft and moral rectification campaigns to arrest declining confidence in the government and trust in the party and to consolidate his personal power base. […] Steve Tsang, from the school of contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Nottingham in Britain, said Xi would use the 19th party congress to clearly define the direction of changes during his rule, with this month’s plenum paving the way for that agenda. “Xi will also use the conclave to put in place as clearly as possible what the succession will look like at the 20th [party] congress, including whether he can put himself in the position of calling the shots after 2022,” Tsang said. Analysts said that while Xi’s formal titles gave him the image of China’s most powerful leader since Mao, it was questionable whether he had amassed sufficient effective power to dictate the succession arrangements and policy direction to be agreed at the 19th party congress, in contrast to late party patriarch Deng Xiaoping, who lacked the titles but was able to get his way on such matters. Zhang Lifan, a party historian formerly with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said Xi, 64, faced an undercurrent of strong resistance within the leadership and the party establishment after gaining little respect from factions across the political spectrum. “He faces strong resistance within the establishment due to all his controversial policies and so many people are just waiting for him to make a mistake,” Zhang said.// Source: SCMP, 30 September 2016.

A significant change in the composition of powerholders is expected at the 19^th Party’s Congress due to retirement of many incumbents in the Standing Committee of the Politburo.

• //Analysts expect Xi to adjust his priorities at the plenary session as the 19th party congress will see five of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee – all except Xi and Premier Li Keqiang – step down after reaching the compulsory retirement age of 68. Another six members of the 25-member Politburo will also step down for the same reason. That will leave the remaining 12 Politburo members, excluding Xi and Li, to compete for five vacancies on the Politburo Standing Committee, and about 250 Central Committee members to contest 11 Politburo seats, assuming the number of members in both bodies is not changed.// Source: SCMP, 30 September 2016.

The cloud over Xi Jinping’s delay in naming a successor stoked speculations about Xi’s plans. Overseas China observers offered various possibilities of Xi Jinping’s delay in designating a successor:

• //Although Mr. Xi’s decision will not be known until late 2017, the suggestion that he intends to break with precedent and begin his second term without a probable successor is magnifying uncertainties about who will rise and who will fall in the expected shake-up, including questions about the fate of the premier, Li Keqiang. “It’s a very delicate issue,” said a member of the party establishment who regularly speaks with senior officials. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the party’s ban on discussing sensitive internal decisions. “I don’t think Xi wants to decide until the people he favors have more experience, more testing,” he said. […] The system for succession, developed after a long period of political turmoil, was devised to help ensure a predictable, stable transition of power in the one-party state. Any effort by Mr. Xi to alter that compact might increase his considerable authority, but it could also inject instability into the delicately balanced system. […] The drama will probably begin in earnest this month, when the Central Committee, about 200 senior officials who sign off on major decisions, meets in Beijing. That meeting is likely to set in motion plans for the congress, which will meet in late 2017 to endorse a new top lineup. […] “Having played the strongman politics since coming to power, Xi would be the least likely person to feel constrained by these unspoken rules” of succession, said Warren Sun, a researcher on Chinese Communist Party history at Monash University in Australia. Delaying the choice of a successor would allow time for Mr. Xi’s favorites to prove their ability and loyalty, experts said. The latter could allow Mr. Xi to continue to wield power behind the scenes after he retires. But it could also create “severe friction” in the next five years, said Sebastian Heilmann, the president of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Not designating a successor could be seen as a trick by Xi to grab a third term,” he said. The risk of elite infighting, as well as demands from other senior officials and retired leaders, could still force Mr. Xi to signal his successor next year, several experts said. “Even the amount of consolidation of power so far may have raised hackles,” said Susan Shirk, the chairwoman of the 21st Century China Program at the University of California, San Diego. “I don’t think Xi will want to further raise alarms about Putinesque intentions.” […] The Constitution requires that he retire after two terms as president, but there is no limit on the more powerful job, general secretary of the party. There is, however, an informal limit, which, like collective rule by the party elite, was instituted by Deng to prevent another dictator-for-life like Mao. […] The world may not know who has won and lost until Mr. Xi introduces his new team after the congress ends late next year.// Source: New York Times, 04 October 2016.

A report by Reuters suggested President Xi is trying to minimize the influence of the Party’s Youth League in the 19^th Party Congress:

• //Xi is trying to prevent the Communist Youth League faction from dominating the party’s seven-member Standing Committee during the 19th congress next year, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “There is no way Xi will let the Youth League have a majority in the Standing Committee,” one of the sources told Reuters. The once powerful faction is struggling to remain relevant after the Youth League’s annual budget was slashed by half this year and as it was blasted in state media for being « too elitist and inefficient ». Xi’s hand was widely believed to have been behind these attacks, the sources and diplomats said. […] These people said it wasn’t immediately clear whether Xi is planning any other moves against the Youth League faction. At least one of the faction’s candidates is expected to get elected whatever Xi’s efforts, the sources said. Xi wants to promote those most loyal to him so that he can push through reforms to buoy the slowing economy and handpick a successor to ensure his legacy, they said.// Source: Reuters, 30 September 2016.

2. Further details about the election fraud in the Liaoning’s legislature

A SCMP reporter Choy Chi-yuk prepared follow-up reports on the election fraud of Liaoning’s legislature. He pointed out that the extraordinary action taken by the national legislature to void the election result in Liaoning’s legislature is because of the fact that those candidates with the blessing from the central authority failed to win out in the election and to become the delegates to the National People’s Congress. He also revealed how the businesspeople bribed their way into the office in the provincial Legislature. The bribery networks involve brokers who are usually political heavyweights such as heads of regional legislature. The extent of corruption is so large that other candidates find it difficult to refuse bribes or not to give out some. Although there is direct election from the public in the law-making body below the county level, it is found that the Party sets up a number of obstacles to independent candidates (such as detention, deletion of social media account, pressure, etc.), for more information please see here by SCMP.

• //The scale of the scandal, which saw the party’s preferred candidates lose out to ones backed by bribe-paying business chiefs, had alarmed the party leadership, they said, and if not addressed had threatened to undermine party general secretary Xi Jinping’s game plan for the party’s national congress late next year, at which a significant reshuffle of senior positions is expected. “A few candidates designated by the central authorities as deputies to the National People’s Congress failed to garner enough votes from Liaoning provincial legislators in early 2013,” a former Liaoning People’s Congress deputy said, adding that the unprecedented political blunder had infuriated top party leaders and sparked an investigation into electoral fraud in the northeastern province. […] A mid-ranking official in the provincial capital, Shenyang, said billionaires in Liaoning had been more than willing to spend up big to secure NPC positions, which, in addition to making it more difficult to launch investigations into their affairs, also enabled them to initiate legislative proposals and gain direct access to local officials who were able to further their business interests. […] The former provincial legislator, who requested anonymity, declined to say how many candidates had contested the NPC election in Liaoning in 2013, or how many had failed to win election. He said the close to 3,000 deputies in the NPC were largely elected either by provincial-level people’s congresses or the People’s Liberation Army, rather than by the central authorities. But party and state leaders, including the 25 members of the party’s decision-making Politburo, and a few senior regional cadres were recommended by the central authorities to provincial-level legislatures, with President Xi, for example, having been elected by the Shanghai People’s Congress. A senior journalist in Liaoning told the South China Morning Post that at least two candidates supported by the central authorities had failed to win election to the NPC in early 2013. He said one of them was Shi Guiyu, who at the time was a member of the party’s provincial standing committee and the official in charge of united front work in the economically struggling province. Four of the five senior provincial officials to have fallen from grace since late 2012 were implicated in the extensive electoral fraud, with the former head of the provincial legislature, Wang Min, who is also a former provincial party boss, accused of direct responsibility for the vote-buying scandal. “What Wang Min did was no different from turning a blind eye to the shortlist of NPC candidates provided by the central authorities, otherwise they would not have lost the election,” the official in Shenyang said.// Source: SCMP, 04 October 2016.

• //Following the exposure of the biggest electoral fraud scandal since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the sources said the corruption was so widespread that other legislators found it difficult to refuse bribes. […] “In the hope of winning a legislative seat, some may offer targeted electors red packets containing cash ranging from 500 to 5,000 yuan [HK$5,800] at banquets they organise,” said a mid-ranking official in Shenyang, the provincial capital. “Others may give huge amounts, ranging … to tens of millions of yuan to brokers, usually political heavyweights such as the heads of regional legislatures, in the expectation of ‘good news’.” […] The official said brokers would usually offer full refunds if the would-be legislator failed to get elected. But a veteran journalist in Liaoning said one business executive had complained bitterly after not getting a refund following a failed run in 2013. The official said one of the 454 sacked provincial legislators was a friend who had accepted more than 100,000 yuan in total from numerous red packets handed out at banquets before the 2013 election. […] He said accepting bribes before legislative elections had become established practice in Liaoning. “You are actually breaking the unspoken rules when you refuse to take the gift packs, including red packets and stuff such as tea or valuable items, while others accept them,” he said. Worse still, the official said, some candidates found they had no choice but to bribe others because so many rivals had been bribing their way into legislatures in recent years. A former provincial lawmaker in Liaoning said paying for a seat had long been common in local elections.// Source: SCMP, 05 October 2016.

3. Survey finds the majority of Chinese citizens most concerned about domestic problems in contrast to media’s highlight on concerns over global threat from the United States

In a survey conducted among 3,154 respondents from April 6 to May 8, 2016 by the Washington-based Pew Research Centre, it finds that 56% of the respondents hoped their leaders to be concerned about China’s domestic problems in comparison to helping other countries. 83% of them regarded corrupt officials as big problem, followed by the rich-poor gap in China (77%) and crime (75%). In terms of international participation, 75% of them agreed China to have played a more important role in the world than 10 years ago, but 77% of them also viewed that the Chinese of way of life needed protection from foreign influence. 45% of them saw the power of the United States as the largest threat to China, followed by global economic instability (35%) and global climate change (34%). For the full report, please find it here.

• //Despite China‘s increasing diplomatic influence, 56 percent of Chinese said they wanted their leaders to focus on the country’s own challenges, such as official corruption, which most said was a problem. Growing inequality is also a concern, with 37 percent describing the gap between rich and poor as a “very big problem”.//Source: Hong Kong Free Press, 06 October 2016.

• //More than three-quarters thought their way of life needed to be protected from foreign influence – 13 percentage points up from 2002. About 80 per cent of those aged at least 50 believed the Chinese way of life had to be protected. Beijing has repeatedly warned its people against foreign influence – in particular the infiltration of “western anti-China forces” – in all aspects of society, ranging from religious communities, non-government organisations, rights activists and lawyers as well as university campuses.// Source: SCMP, 06 October 2016.

• //The vast majority of Chinese (75 percent) believe their own country plays “a more important role in world affairs” than a decade ago, compared with only 21 percent of Americans, 23 percent of Europeans and 68 percent of Indians. However, this confidence in China‘s international stature contrasts with a growing sense of unease among many, the survey showed, with about three-quarters of respondents saying their “way of life needs to be protected against foreign influence” — up from 64 percent in 2002.// Source: SCMP, 06 October 2016.

• //The survey found that in terms of global threats, Chinese people were most concerned about the US, surpassing their concerns about global economic instability, climate change and Islamic State. In the survey, 45 per cent of respondents saw US power and influence as a major threat to China, compared with 39 per cent in the same survey in 2013. About 52 per cent of them believed the United States was trying to stop China from becoming an equal with the US. Despite the perceived threat, half of the respondents still gave America a favourable rating, while 44 per cent rated it negatively.// Source: SCMP, 06 October 2016.

4. Another survey suggests Chinese public not satisfied with the anti-corruption efforts by the central authority when exposed to more corrupt cases

A new study on the public perception of central authority’s anti-corruption campaign has been published. Ni Xing and Li Zhu at the Institute of Governance and Public Affairs of Guangzhou’s Sun Yat-sen University successfully surveyed 83,305 citizens nationwide by telephone and found that the public discontent with the central authority for local government’s corruption problem increases when the number of corrupt cases exposed to the public increases. They argued it is attributed to the public perception of the central government’s responsibility for failing to tackle the corruption problem. They also found that in areas with higher economic development, people tend to regard the local government less corrupt than the central government. They argued it is attributed to the strong capacity of the local government in public good provision. For the full text of the article in Chinese, please find it here.

• //The Chinese president’s drive against graft, now nearly four years old, is one of the most powerful and far-reaching campaigns in the country since Mao Zedong’s death in 1976. But a new study suggests that it has backfired, with citizens often blaming local graft on the central government rather than on regional authorities, while an FT analysis indicates that the odds of officials being punished for corruption are slim. […] But the new study finds that the higher the number of reported graft cases in a prefecture, the more people in the area perceive Beijing as being more corrupt than their local government. Ni Xing and Li Zhen [sic] at the Institute of Governance and Public Affairs of Guangzhou’s Sun Yat-sen University, who conducted the study, attribute this finding to the centralisation of power. “If local government is overflowing with corruption, people will gradually shift responsibility for that to the centre as they perceive the centre’s failure of management to have led to such a state of affairs,” they write. The study, which surveyed 83,300 people nationwide by telephone, was published in the latest edition of China’s Journal of Public Administration. The findings suggest that the campaign’s scope and length may inflict lasting damage on the party leadership’s image.// Source: Financial Times, 10 October 2016.

Scholars pointed out that it is not evident for the central government to combat corruption within the Party resolvedly, or it failed to march the discipline/punishment with the extent of corruption:

• //I don’t see any clear political will” to seriously punish corrupt officials at the grassroots level, said Fu Hualing, a law professor at the University of Hong Kong. “Maybe they understand that is probably very destructive if China does that in every county, every district,” he said. “The whole country would probably be in chaos.” The campaign’s stated aim is to hold all levels of Chinese officials accountable for abuses of power. Many scholars of Chinese government say its underlying purpose is to make party cadres more responsive to orders from on high while burnishing the party’s image. […] The analysis of official statistics by the Financial Times also shows that, for the vast majority of China’s Communist party cadres in the civil service, the chances of being seriously punished for corruption remain slim. In the first three years of the campaign, fewer than 36,000 party members were handed over to China’s courts for prosecution — less than 0.5 per cent of the 7.5m working as officials in 2015. While almost 750,000 cadres were disciplined by the party over the same period, experts on party disciplinary mechanisms stress that most such cases amount only to a warning or demerit. […] Ding Xueliang, a social science professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said cadres had told him that for party organisations of any size there was now in effect a requirement to discipline at least a few members. Otherwise, “the upper levels will come back to you and question why your party branch is so unique — because so many other party branches have had five, 10, 20 officials charged for corruption.” Prof Ding dismissed the idea that the campaign is seriously intended to stamp out graft for good, estimating perhaps 80 per cent of officials had engaged in some form of corruption during their careers. “If you have lived in China for five years or more … you would not have such expectations.” But Mr Xi vowed in July to “maintain our zero-tolerance attitude towards corruption and look into every case involving corruption, leaving no place to hide for corrupt officials within the party”, according to Xinhua, the state news agency.// Source: Financial Times, 10 October 2016.

CHINA – DIPLOMACY

1. Exchange of words between China’s Global Times and Singaporean government over South China Sea issue

An exchange of words took place between Global Times and the Foreign Ministry of Singaporean Government after the Global Times published an article on September 21 accusing the Singapore’s delegates of putting an endorsement of the Hague ruling into the final document issued after the Non-Alliance Movement (NAM) meeting in Venezuela. The Beijing-based Singapore’s ambassador in China Stanley Loh issued a rebuttal to the article, and received replies from the editor-in-chief of the Global Times Hu Xijin (胡锡进). For details of the timeline, please see here prepared by SCMP.

The original news article by the Global Times:

• //有知情人士向《环球时报》记者透露，在磋商过程中，有不少国家发言，明确反对强化涉南海内容，此时新加坡代表表现得气急败坏，对反对其企图的国家的立场冷嘲热讽，甚至在争论中出言不逊，对立场公正的国家的代表恶意攻击。不仅如此，在外长会及其后，新加坡不断节外生枝，公开挑战委内瑞拉作为主席国的裁决，再次遭到不少国家明确反对。许多与会代表对新加坡不顾不结盟运动团结，公开挑战不结盟运动决策程序及惯例做法表示不满。新加坡出于一己私利，在磋商和会议中反复纠缠，多次拖延会议进程至深夜，也引起各国反感。 […] 2015年，新加坡接棒泰国成为中国—东盟关系的“协调国”，为期三年。不过在今年7月所谓菲律宾诉中国的南海仲裁案结果出炉后，新加坡的表现让人大跌眼镜。 […] 知情人士告诉《环球时报》记者，如果新加坡继续不恰当介入南海争议，势必将影响中新关系。// Source: Global Times, 21 September 2016.

A response to the incident by the Foreign Ministry seemed to confirm the accusation by Chinese government:

• //Without directly naming Singapore, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said an “individual nation” had insisted on including South China Sea issues in the final document of the recent Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) Summit held in Venezuela on September 18. Geng was asked to comment on the tiff that erupted between Singaporean ambassador Stanley Loh and Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid under People’s Daily.// Source: SCMP, 27 September 2016.

Du Jifeng from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences argued that the intermediate role between ASEAN and China played by Singapore might create tension over sensitive issues such as the South China Sea dispute:

• //Singapore is not a claimant in the disputed waters, but its role as an intermediary between China and Asean sometimes touches a nerve with some Chinese, who question if the city state is drawing closer to the United States. “The two nations may have different understandings especially over the sensitive South China Sea issues,” said Du Jifeng, a Southeast Asian affairs specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Singapore thinks it’s speaking for Asean rather than itself, but Beijing sometimes thinks it’s Singapore’s stance, and that makes the bilateral relations complicated.”// Source: SCMP, 27 September 2016.

A report by the Wall Street Journal mentioned that Singapore was seen by China as siding with the US-led effort to pressure it into accepting the Hague ruling over the South China Sea in July:

• //The verbal duel is exposing anew a longstanding resentment in China, both official and popular, at Singapore’s perceived partiality in the South China Sea disputes. Beijing’s assertions of sovereignty to almost the entire sea overlap with claims from several Southeast Asian countries. […] Though Singapore isn’t a claimant and has professed its neutrality in the disputes, the small island state has championed a “rules-based international order.” That has irked some in China, who see Singapore as siding with U.S.-led efforts to pressure Beijing into accepting the international tribunal ruling in July that rejected China’s claims to historic and economic rights in the South China Sea. Beijing has repeatedly denounced that ruling as illegitimate and void. Criticism of Singapore has regularly appeared in the Global Times, which is known for its nationalistic views. In the past, the criticisms generally appeared as opinion pieces. Last week, a news report took Singapore to task with factual allegations about proceedings at this month’s Non-Aligned Movement summit. Citing anonymous sources, the Global Times reported that the Singapore delegation lobbied in vain for the summit’s outcome document to include references to the tribunal ruling. The report said Singaporean delegates grew “exasperated” and made “hostile attacks” against other countries, while going on to challenge the summit chair, Venezuela, for not accepting its proposal. […] According to Mr. Loh (Stanley Loh, Singapore’s ambassador to China), Singapore didn’t raise the South China Sea or the tribunal ruling at the summit. He said the proposal to revise the summit communique was made collectively by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which wanted the document to reflect regional concerns over recent South China Sea tensions.// Source: Wall Street Journal, 29 September 2016.

Peh Shing Huei, the former China Bureau Chief of the Strait Times, drew our attention to the values of Global Times in the eyes of the CCP. Domestically, it attracts readers who hold nationalist views. Internationally, it helps spread messages to foreign countries that cannot be conveniently said on official occasions.

• //It is tempting to want to ignore the Global Times. The Chinese tabloid publishes content that is rude, crass and often skinny on facts. But in the crowded and cutthroat scene of China’s media, it stands out for its success and popularity, built on the back of nationalistic coverage that at times borders on warmongering. […] Yet, its value rests precisely in its loutish ways. It offers the outside world a glimpse of what the Chinese government is actually thinking, but unable or unwilling to say, at least not in such insulting ways. And given the growing importance of Beijing, this peek into the dark side is precious. Global Times may be the bad and hawkish cop, but its messages are a transmission from within the heart of CCP power. The choice of Global Times as its vehicle usually comes down to two reasons, domestic and foreign. First, and most importantly, the newspaper’s popularity allows the CCP’s message to reach as many Chinese as possible. The paper’s Chinese-language website reaches 15 million visitors daily. That is almost three times the size of Singapore’s population. The belligerent tone of the paper appeals to a growing home base of young nationalists, which are referred to as xiao fen hong or little pinks. Very often, this means mocking, scolding and insulting other countries. Which brings us to the second reason. The Global Times is noticed around the world. While the paper is often lampooned overseas, foreign media pay close attention to its stories. For the CCP, it is no use blasting other countries unless the recipient gets the message. […] Through these news stories, Beijing aims to influence, scare and bully foreign states into submission. Such are the intentions of the latest Global Times’ They are designed to frighten Singapore into, at the very least, silence on the South China Sea. As Singapore is the country coordinator of Asean-China dialogue until mid-2018, it can expect such Chinese pressure to continue, led more often than not, by Global Times.// Source: SCMP, 01 October 2016.

2. China’s improved relationship with the Philippines under the new President Rodrigo Duterte

The new President of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte is expected to visit China in mid-October. Analysts argued it indicated a gradual shift of the Philippines’ foreign policy away from the United States and towards China, despite the Hague court ruling dispute that strained the bilateral relation between China and the Philippines in the past years. The visit will cover talks on trade, investment and fishery cooperation in the disputed South China Sea.

• //The friendly relationship between the Philippines and the United States has been one of the pillars of Washington’s strategic military rebalance to Asia under President Barack Obama. But the alliance has been under strain since Duterte came to power three months ago and chafed at U.S. criticism of his bloody war on drugs, which has led to the killing of more than 3,100 alleged drug users and dealers by police and vigilantes. […] That has included the Philippines extending an olive branch to China, despite the two countries being locked for years in a bitter territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Duterte has also spoken of reaching out to Russia. Ever since President Duterte took office, China and Philippines have been engaging in friendly interactions, which have yielded a series of positive results, » Zhao Jianhua, the Chinese ambassador to Manila, said at a Chinese National Day reception at the embassy this week. « The clouds are fading away. The sun is rising over the horizon, and will shine beautifully on the new chapter of bilateral relations, » Zhao said. Duterte plans to visit Beijing from Oct 19-21, and hold talks with both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. Diplomatic and business sources in Manila have said he will be accompanied by about two dozen businessmen, which could lead to deals being forged that could underpin any improved bilateral ties. […] Duterte wants China to abide by the ruling and allow access to the Scarborough Shoal, a traditional fishing ground for Chinese, Filipino and Vietnamese fishermen. But he has not insisted on the ruling being implemented and said he would like to negotiate on the row. […] Zha Daojiong, an international relations professor at China’s Peking University, said a deal over renewed Philippines access to Scarborough Shoal could be expected at the visit. But he said it would be a verbal rather than written agreement to avoid formally acknowledging the international court’s ruling, which upheld the historic fishing rights of both states. « There’s many ways this meeting could be productive…even if there is likely to be some caution on both sides, » Zha said. […] « Officials in Washington must now be seriously worried about the trajectory of U.S.-Philippine relations, » said Ian Storey, a South China Sea expert at Singapore’s ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. « Especially military-to-military issues such as joint exercises and U.S. access to Philippine bases, and whether Duterte will try and cut a deal with Beijing over the South China Sea that will allow China to advance its maritime claims. » « We have to see what he actually does, » said Luo Liang, a researcher at the Chinese government-backed National Institute for South China Sea Studies in Hainan. « Although the signals from Duterte are good, we still need to wait and see. »// Source: Reuters, 30 September 2016.

HONG KONG – POLITICS

1. Occupy activist Joshua Wong detained at Thailand’s border on his way to give a speech at university in Thailand

On 05 October, Joshua Wong, the Secretary General of the political party Demosistō, was detained by the Thai Government when he landed in Bangkok on his way to visit a top Thai university and to share his experience in the Umbrella Movement. He was cut off outside contact during his 12 hours of detention. He was later sent back to Hong Kong. Wong has written a self-record of what happened during the detention (see here in Chinese).

• //A deputy commander at Thailand’s Suvarnabhumi Airport immigration office confirmed on Wednesday that immigration police had blacklisted Hong Kong student activist Joshua Wong Chi-fung as requested by China. The former Occupy movement leader was stopped at the airport when he attempted to visit Chulalongkorn University, a top Thai institution, to speak at an event. He was later put on a plane back to Hong Kong, a source told the Post. […] On Tuesday (03 October) night, Wong took an Emirates flight, EK385, from Hong Kong and arrived at around 11.45pm local time in Bangkok. He had been invited by Thai student activist Netiwit Chotipatpaisal to address politics students on Thursday to mark the 40th anniversary of a deadly government crackdown (a massacre of pro-democracy students by Thai security forces and royalist militias in 1976). When Wong’s political party, Demosisto, was unable to contact him at Wednesday 4.18am Hong Kong time, Netiwit, who was supposed to meet Wong, told the political party that Wong had been detained. […] The Sunday Morning Post earlier reported that Netiwit hoped Wong, who was expected to share his experience during the Occupy movement, could inspire young people to raise their voices in the military-led country.// Source: SCMP, 05 October 2016.

There is a possibility that the detention of Wong is without legal grounds:

• //Hong Kong-based human rights lawyer Michael Vidler, who had advised Wong on previous occasions, said there was no legal basis to detain the activist other than for the period he was waiting to be put on a plane back because he had been rejected entry in Thailand. “It would be difficult to think of any offence he would have committed to justify having detained him for another reason,” Vidler said.// Source: SCMP, 05 October 2016.

The Thai authority received condemnation for its detention of Wong from human rights groups:

• //Amnesty International said the decision to block Wong, who inspired student activists in Thailand, « underscores the government’s willingness to suppress the right to freedom of expression and raises serious concerns about how China is using its influence over Thai authorities ». […] « Thailand’s arrest of Joshua Wong, a well-known pro-democracy activist in Hong Kong, sadly suggests that Bangkok is willing to do Beijing’s bidding. Wong should be freed immediately and allowed to travel and exercise his right to free expression, » said Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch.// Source: Bangkok Post, 05 October 2016.

Thailand’s junta leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha as well as the Thai government pointed to China when asked for the reason for Wong’s detention. The Foreign Ministry of China did not confirm nor deny Thai’s responses. In recent years, a number of cases indicated that the Thai Government has been in close cooperation with the Chinese Government to arrest dissidents in Thailand. Yet, there were also reports that suggested the Thai authority’s unwillingness to let any human rights talks take place in the country (for example, see the case of workers from Amnesty International by New York Times here).

• //Thailand’s junta leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha said a Hong Kong democracy advocate was barred from entering the country and sent home at the Chinese government’s request. […] “He already went back to China,” Prayuth told reporters Wednesday. “Officials there have requested to take him back. It’s Chinese officials’ business. Don’t get involved too much. They are all Chinese people no matter Hong Kong or mainland China.” […] Thai government spokesman Sansern Kaewkamnerd said in remarks released by the prime minister’s office that the junta, known formally as the National Council for Peace and Order, had a responsibility to maintain peace and keep political conflict from escalating. “The NCPO was aware that Mr. Wong had been active in resistance movements against other foreign governments, and that if such actions were taken within Thailand, they could eventually affect Thailand’s relations with other nations,” Sansern said, according to the statement.// Source: Bloomberg, 05 October 2016.

• //Pol Col Pruthipong Prayoonsiri said China sent a request to the Thai government to seek its cooperation in denying Wong entry to the kingdom, Thai newspaper The Nation reported. “As a result, the Immigration Bureau blacklisted him and held him for deportation. […] China’s foreign ministry broke its silence on the incident shortly after Thai media reports alleged that China asked Thailand not to allow Wong’s entry. “I noted the relevant reports,” a spokesman for the ministry said. “China respects Thailand’s exercise of immigration control in accordance with the law.”// Source: SCMP, 05 October 2016.
• //Since the junta took power it has allowed Chinese dissidents and scores of Uighur refugees to be forcibly returned to China at Beijing’s request. Last October the Hong Kong bookseller Gui Minhai vanished from his home in the Thai town of Pattaya. Gui, who many believe was kidnapped by Chinese security agents, is being held in custody at an unknown location in mainland China.// Source: The Guardian, 05 October 2016.

• //近年來，中國異見人士在泰國「失蹤」後被帶回，或遭泰國當局遣返的情況並不鮮見。2016年1月，因不願充當中國國家安全部門線人而逃離中國的前南都網編輯李新在泰國「失蹤」，其後「自願返回中國接受調查」，但他的妻子認為丈夫是被強制帶返中國；2015年10月，香港銅鑼灣書店老闆桂敏海在泰國「失蹤」，隨後於今年1月現身內地中央電視台「認罪」，稱自己因不堪忍受內心折磨，而回國向公安機關自首。2015年11月，已經獲得聯合國難民署認可難民身份的中國異見人士姜野飛和董廣平，也被泰國以非法入境為由遣返回中國。當時聯合國難民署已對他們移居他國進行了安排，兩人只是短暫滯留泰國；去年7月，泰國還向中國遣返了109名逃到該國的維吾爾族人，當時一度引發國際人權組織的強烈抗議。// Source: The Initium, 06 October 2016.

TAIWAN – DIPLOMACY

1. Taiwan was barred from joining the meeting of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of the United Nations

On 27 September, the ICAO, as an agency under the United Nations, held a meeting to discuss international aviation safety but refused to allow Taiwan to join the meeting, citing respect for the “One-China” principle. While Taiwan was allowed to join three years ago in the last meeting, China put great pressure on the ICAO this year in order to make Taiwan accept the “One-China” policy envisioned by the Mainland authority after Tsai Ing-wen took power in May this year.

• //A U.N. aviation agency has snubbed Taiwan by not inviting it to its assembly in Canada, the latest sign of pressure China is bringing to bear on the new independence-leaning government of an island it views as a renegade province. […] The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said arrangements for the assembly, scheduled for Sept. 27 to Oct. 7 in Montreal, did not follow the pattern ahead of a meeting in 2013, when China had asked for Taiwan to be invited. « ICAO follows the United Nations’ ‘One China’ policy, » the agency’s communications chief, Anthony Philbin, told Reuters in an email. « While arrangements had been made for their attendance at the last (38th) session of the assembly, there are no such arrangements for this one. » Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said it had approached China about the issue in early August with a « pragmatic and positive » attitude, but was « flatly rejected ». « We solemnly call on China to open its heart and think seriously as it may face serious consequences for its one-sided actions, » it said in a statement. […] Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that as an « inseparable part of China » Taiwan had no right to participate in the assembly, and that Taipei’s attendance in the past was based on « temporary arrangements ». « At present, our position is extremely clear. The prerequisite for Taiwan to participate in any international activity is for it to agree to the ‘One China’ policy and for this to be resolved through consultation, » Lu told a regular press briefing.// Source: Reuters, 23 September 2016.

Near the venue where the meeting was held, demonstrators chanted slogans in support of Taiwan:

• //在會場大樓外，約30名住在加拿大的台灣人到場抗議，高叫「台灣加油」的口號，並抗議台灣被拒之門外，他們高舉英文標語「台灣應該參與ICAO」、「我們不是二等公民」。與台灣有邦交的馬紹爾群島及薩爾瓦多，對台灣未獲邀參加會議表示遺憾，聲稱會盡量在會上為台灣發聲。// Source: Hong Kong Economic Journal, 28 September 2016.

Prof. Liu Jincai from Fo Guang University in Taiwan argued that China’s ruthless repression of Taiwan’s space in the international community could backfire as it might make the current Administration under Tsai Ing-wen look weak in her negotiation with China, reinforcing the Taiwanese’s sense of subjectivity and anti-China sentiment on the Island. He further pointed out that the antagonistic approach to cross-strait relation by the Administration under Chen Shui-bian in 2002 was a result of China’s heavy-handed policy.

• //國際民航組織（ICAO）大會已於9月27日開議 ，此次大會提出依據聯合國2758決議「一個中國原則」，沒有邀請台灣參與，甚至連記者採訪都被拒於外。基本上，各國和國際組織大多數都認可一中原則，儘管美國動員其他會員國呼籲ICAO給予台灣發出邀請函，但國際民航組織聲明不能違反一中原則。顯見，美國的支持並非是萬靈丹，兩岸沒有「九二共識」的共同政治基礎才是關鍵。此次台灣參與ICAO大會受挫，先前蔡英文政府才宣布2016年政府不推動入聯活動，這種自我限縮克制的作法，看來並沒有得到善意回報，顯然若無回到「九二共識」軌道，大陸當局必然採行堅壁清野斷然措施，壓縮台灣國際空間。[…] 這種外交挫折可能產生一種逆反心理，蔡政府限制入聯活動卻無法換取參與ICAO，將被視為向大陸示弱及本身是軟弱無能的表現。同時，激化台獨基本教義路線發展，不僅強化台灣民眾對主體意識追求，也會升高「反中」意識並對大陸當局產生敵意 ，進而採取反制行為。檢視扁執政拋棄「新中間路線」，提出了衝突性兩岸政策論述，即是如此。2002年7月扁就任黨主席時大陸卻宣布與諾魯建交，這被視為一項極為不友善及挑釁行為。扁此後極力推動公投制憲，以台灣名義加入聯合國及正常化國家運動，兩岸從此陷入衝突。 // Source: China Times, 28 September 2016.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, President Tsai urged the Beijing Government to re-start dialogue without any preconditions. She also explicitly rejected the use of the term “1992 Consensus”. She outlined her plan to reduce economic dependence from Mainland China and reach out to the Southeast Asia.

• //Ms. Tsai offered Beijing a chance to reset relations after several months in which China has used its abundant economic and diplomatic sway to try to check her government’s domestic and international agendas. She said both sides should sit down to eliminate misunderstanding, without any preconditions. “I also hope that mainland China does not misinterpret or misjudge the current situation, or think that it can make Taiwanese bow to pressure. In a democratic society, this kind of pressure is felt by all,” Ms. Tsai said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday. “No administration in Taiwan is able to make any decision that goes against the opinion of the people.” Tsai also recommitted to plans to reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China, saying the economies compete more than complement each other. On ties with the U.S.—Taiwan’s most important security partner—Ms. Tsai expected relations to remain firm no matter whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton wins next month’s presidential election. […] Group tourism from the mainland, whose spending buoys small businesses on the island, has dipped. Beijing suspended official channels of communication with Ms. Tsai’s government and blocked an attempt by Taiwan to participate in a global civil-aviation body. Without directly linking these measures, Beijing has conditioned engagement on Ms. Tsai’s endorsing a vague 1992 formula her predecessor followed that there is “one China.” Ms. Tsai has refused to use the phrasing “’92 consensus” that Beijing prefers and declined to adopt it in the interview. When comparing the island’s situation to the former British colony of Hong Kong now under Chinese rule, Ms. Tsai said Taiwan is “a sovereign, independent country” but, like the people of Hong Kong, aspires to “democracy, freedom and human rights.” […] Likewise, on the economy, Ms. Tsai said, for the sake of prosperity, Taiwan must promote innovation and shift trade and investment to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and away from China. Growth in the economy, which is roughly the size of Sweden’s, is officially projected to reach 1.2%, and, Ms. Tsai said, was already slowing for years before she took office.// Source: Wall Street Journal, 04 October 2016.

• //An Fengshan, a spokesman for the mainland Taiwan Affairs Office – responding to Tsai’s comments in an interview with The Wall Street Journal – said that the “1992 consensus” is unshakable. “Our position is steadfast on opposing any ‘Taiwan independence’ activities,” An said.// Source: SCMP, 06 October 2016.

• //Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of strategic studies at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, said Taiwan was being “choked in its throat” as it was squeezed out of international participation. “Taiwan’s participation in international health or aviation agency is seen by the Taiwanese people as reasonable pursuit, and should not be politicised,” Huang said. Huang said Tsai had remained restrained in her attitude towards Beijing, and that her emphasis that Taiwan would not “revert to its old path of confrontation” was to provide reassurance to the international society, including its ally the US, that Taiwan was not a “trouble maker”.// Source: SCMP, 06 October 2016.

Under the pressure from the Mainland, President Tsai in her speech on the National Day of the Republic of China reaffirmed that she would not bow to pressure and urged the Mainland authority to recognize the existence of the Republic of China as reality, but she also said the Democratic Progressive Party would not go back to the road of confrontation as before. Political parties in Taiwan generally regarded the speech as an extension of Tsai’s original stand since her presidency, and predicted little breakthrough in the cross-strait relation. For the full text of her speech in Chinese, please find it here by MingPao.

• //蔡英文總統今天發表國慶談話，呼籲兩岸盡快坐下來談，「只要有利於兩岸和平發展，有利於兩岸人民福祉，什麼都可以談」；她也呼籲對岸，要正視中華民國存在的事實，正視台灣人民對於民主制度堅定信仰。民進黨重返執政的第一個國慶日，蔡英文以「堅定向前，讓國家因改革而偉大」為題發表國慶演說。針對兩岸關係，她重申，5月20日就職演說的承諾迄今一句都不曾改變，尊重九二會談歷史事實、珍惜20多年來雙方交流協商累積的現狀與成果，並建立一致性、可預測、且可持續的兩岸關係，維持台灣民主以及台海和平的現狀。蔡英文說，雖然過去幾個月，兩岸關係有些起伏，但政府立場仍然一致而堅定，且承諾不變、善意不變、不在壓力下屈服，更不會走回對抗的老路；兩岸應該盡快坐下來談，兩岸領導人應共同展現智慧和彈性，將兩岸帶回到理性、冷靜的態度，一起把兩岸現存的分歧帶向雙贏的未來。蔡並提出「維持現狀」更積極的意義，是在深化民主機制的基礎上，以更前瞻積極的作為，推動兩岸建設性的交流與對話，進而建構可長可久的兩岸和平穩定關係。談到國際參與，蔡說，即使參與國際組織的路不好走，但還是會堅定走下去，台灣從未在全球性議題上缺席，即使受到壓力，依然會持續努力。// Source: United Daily News, 10 October 2016.

• //中國國民黨立法院黨團書記長江啟臣今天表示，總統蔡英文國慶演說，對解開兩岸僵局，幫助恐怕有限；民主進步黨立委黃偉哲則認為，是四平八穩，充分體現是可以預測不會爆衝。[…] 時代力量立法院黨團總召徐永明表示，這是蔡總統520演說的延續，再把立場重複一遍，希望讓對方了解，任期內就是這策略與方向，這個球現在就回到了北京，就看北京如何回應。// Source: United Daily News, 10 October 2016.