Keywords: Climate change, CCP in Australia, cybersecurity, e-commerce, June 4 annual vigil, Panama.

CHINA – ENVIRONMENT

Implications of the US departure from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change for China

On 01 June, Donald Trump announced the US departure from the Paris Agreement, citing many of the Paris Agreement terms put the US at a disadvantage as the reason. Observers tend to expect a closer cooperation between China and the European Union, they intended to issue a climate statement which lays out in greater details how they can improve the mechanism and funding needs to address climate change. However, such cooperation was impaired by disagreement over trade issues such as China’s steel overproduction, China’s position as a market economy, imbalance of trade between the two economies, etc. In the recent China-EU Summit, they failed to issue a joint communiqué regarding either trade agreement or climate cooperation despite previous optimism after the US departure from the Paris Agreement. On SCMP, some articles discussed the possibility of China’s leadership in climate actions and the potential obstacles.

• //[B]eijing and Brussels have been preparing to announce their intention to accelerate joint efforts to reduce global carbon emissions. According to a statement being prepared before an EU-China summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, the new alliance will say they are determined to “lead the energy transition” toward a low-carbon economy. The EU’s climate commissioner, Miguel Arias Cañete, told the Guardian: “The EU and China are joining forces to forge ahead on the implementation of the Paris agreement and accelerate the global transition to clean energy.” […] In their declaration, Brussels and Beijing will also call on all parties “to uphold the Paris agreement” and signal their “highest political commitment” to doing so themselves. The document describes climate change as a “national security issue” and “multiplying factor of social and political fragility”. The Paris pact is a “historic achievement” and “irreversible”, the document says. […] [t]he document reaffirms funding commitments and promises to bring forward new mid-century greenhouse gas reduction targets. The two blocs will also launch their first ever clean-energy cooperation, as well as measures on energy efficiency, low-emissions transport and low-carbon cooperation between cities. […] Both sides will also promise to help developing countries reduce their carbon footprint, and the EU will increasingly share its technological knowhow. “Tackling climate change and reforming our energy systems are significant drivers of job creation, investment opportunities and economic growth,” the joint statement is expected to say.// Source: The Guardian, 01 June 2017.

• //The European Union and China warned U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday he was making a major error by withdrawing from the Paris climate pact, but the pair failed to agree a formal climate statement because of divisions over trade. Speaking alongside Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, the EU’s Donald Tusk said efforts to reduce pollution and combat rising sea levels would now continue without the United States. But a spat on trade and steel production underscored the differences in a sometimes difficult EU-China relationship. « We are convinced that yesterday’s decision by the United States to leave the Paris agreement is a big mistake, » Tusk, who chairs EU summits as the head of the European Council, told a news conference with Li and the EU’s chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker. […] France, Germany and Italy have mooted the idea of allowing the EU to block Chinese investment in Europe, partly because European companies are denied similar access in China and because of risks of China acquiring prized European technology. In reply, Li said China was working hard to promote a trade balance, with Chinese tourism to Europe now far greater than EU tourism in China. Foreign investment opportunities, he said, were far different from when China first opened up.// Source: Reuters, 02 June 2017.

• //Most analysts agree that Trump’s decision will damage the credibility of the world’s sole superpower, damage its relationships with key allies and trading partners and cede economic opportunities in clean energy to other nations, and allow China to fill the leadership vacuum on the world stage. “This shows that Donald Trump has completely abrogated US leadership on key issues to the world’s future to China,” said Professor David Zweig, director of the Centre on China’s Transnational Relations at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Professor Jessica Chen Weiss, a political scientist at Cornell University in New York, described Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Agreement, an international accord reached in 2015, as “a symbolic but important abdication of global leadership and a diplomatic gift to China, where climate change and the environment are recognised as serious concerns that responsible nations must address”. […] Trump has suggested the US withdraw from the international stage on everything from setting the rules for investment, trade and environmental standards to financing infrastructure projects, giving Beijing many chances to expand its influence. The US withdrawal would lead more countries to regard China’s leadership on global affairs more favourably and support Beijing’s initiatives, analysts said. […] Analysts also said Trump’s decision would help promote and strengthen China’s relations with the America’s main allies in Europe and elsewhere.// Source: SCMP, 06 June 2017.

• //As international energy ministers gather in Beijing this week to promote renewables, China’s difficulty in maximising its green resources underscores uncertainty over how best to transition to cleaner electricity. […] Two nagging problems have dampened that success, however, according to industry representatives and outside observers: China’s sprawling power grid has been unable to handle the influx of new electricity from wind and solar, while some provincial officials have retained a preference for coal. […] China’s difficulties, while more pronounced than in other countries, are not unique. Western countries have experienced their own renewable struggles as utilities tried to integrate weather dependent wind and solar power into electricity grids built around coal plants, which are more polluting but also more reliable. But over the next two decades, events in developing nations including China and India are expected to play a magnified role in addressing climate change.// Source: SCMP, 05 June 2017.

CHINA – POLITICS

1. Explosion of Chinese Communist Party Intelligence activities in Australia by the country’s media

In early June, Australian media exposed an investigative report on how the Chinese Communist Party is active in coordinating many actors in Australia for the benefits of China, ranging from liaising with Chinese university students directly to sponsoring Australian politicians indirectly. A very extensive coverage is available on Sydney Morning Herald here composed of three parts. Analysts comment on the media explosion from various perspectives. Callum Smith from Australian National University argued on Global Times that the fear against China is unnecessary as it is natural to have people in Australia fond of China and the over-concern about China’s activities in the country might exacerbate the existing tensions within the Australian-Chinese community. Asher Wolf, an Australian journalist and a political media adviser, contended on SCMP that the sudden extensive coverage on the CCP activities in Australia is a deliberate act by politicians under the influence of the US. Wanning Sun, a professor of Media and Communication at the University of Technology Sydney, argued on Australian Financial Review that while it is evident the Chinese government stepped up its international efforts to shape opinions favorable to itself in light of global media power of the West and to make significant inroads in Chinese-language media abroad including those in Australia, the Chinese-language media in Australia is not well understood by the Australian mainstream media, which partly reinforces the racial bias against the already significant Chinese community in Australia or the fear for “China’s rise”.

• //The defence and intelligence community believes that attempts by the Chinese Communist Party to exert its influence in Australia pose a direct threat to our nation’s liberties and its sovereignty. That fear has been confirmed by a five-month-long Four Corners-Fairfax investigation which shows Beijing is active across a vast array of fronts — from directing Chinese student associations, threatening Australian-based Chinese dissidents, seeking to influence academic inquiry, co-opting community groups and controlling most Chinese-language media. And Monday night’s Four Corners program will track the millions in opaque Chinese-linked donations to show how it buys access and influence in Australian politics. […] The Communist Party keeps watch over the 150,000-strong Chinese students studying in Australian universities by controlling the Chinese Students’ and Scholars’ Associations. The Four Corners-Fairfax investigation will show how the Chinese Embassy in Canberra orchestrated a mass student rally to welcome Premier Li Keqiang in March and stressed the importance of blocking out anti-Communist protesters. And it will detail how a « spontaneous » demonstration pushing China’s sovereignty over the South China Sea in Melbourne last year was coordinated by one of the many Australian-based Chinese-language media companies that acts as a propaganda arm for Beijing.// Source: Australian Broadcasting Corporation, 06 June 2017.

• //The allegations that Chinese students are involved in espionage activities seem anachronistic and unsophisticated in an « information age, » one in which Russian hackers allegedly influence US elections and have access to the private emails of presidential candidates. From my experience, many Chinese-Australians and expatriates are proud of their heritage, and have a strong sense of community. It’s not surprising that we see this on display. […] We live in a democratic nation, one in which we celebrate diversity of opinion. It is hardly surprising that some Australian-Chinese or Chinese expatriates in Australia hold positive views toward China. This does not make them foreign agents. Such fear-mongering only serves to exacerbate existing social tensions between and within the Australian-Chinese community. […] It’s no secret that China, its enterprises and its citizens are looking for more influence abroad. Australia is already substantially economically dependent on China. […] In fact, there is very little secret about China’s Australia policy, and indeed, its foreign policies more broadly.// Source: Global Times, 08 June 2017.

• //One wonders how the Australian media could come up with so many stories, concurring so neatly, with so much access to sources in the intelligence community and the US administration? Just great investigative journalism? It all happened to coincide with Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) foreign affairs and security talks with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and US Secretary of Defence James Mattis in Sydney. Just coincidentally, of course. […] The sudden whirlwind of concern-mongering over China’s interests in Australia is all rather loud and jarring: the joint US-Australian military installation at Pine Gap and US Marine rotations in Darwin hardly ever gather a murmur. […] There’s no doubt Australia has been left open to geopolitical exploitation, manipulation and intrigue. But the one-sided claims focusing solely on China come across with more than a whiff of hypocrisy – particularly as the Australian media trots out an ever-increasing line of American political figures and “think-tankists” to tell us why Australian sovereignty is at risk. […] The fight to protect Australia’s political, economic and cultural values should start at home, but unfortunately it seems for the most part its political class has less will to reform laws for the collective good than to launch media attacks on China to impress the US. […] Australia shouldn’t be relying on anti-Chinese posturing to strengthen its borders. A sharp focus on non-partisan development and implementation of an adequate rule of law is the best starting place to ensure Australia’s national sovereignty and political integrity.// Source: SCMP, 10 June 2017.

2. Update on Guo Wengui

• Guo Wengui continues to be in the news for reasons that he and his former colleagues are sued in the US and China respectively. He has been active in using Youtube and Twitter to make allegations against Chinese business tycoons and CCP leaders, especially Wang Qishan, and promote his political agenda publicly revealed by himself. After he started to reveal many “secrets”, the Chinese leadership issued an Interpol “Red Notice” to catch him, but soon after that his wife and daughters, who are previously grounded, are allowed to leave China for New York to re-union with Guo. Victor Shih from the University of California at San Diego analyzed that it could indicate the lack of consensus among party leaders about how to deal with Guo.
• //A Chinese billionaire who made allegations of high-level corruption against Communist Party officials in his homeland and is wanted by authorities in Beijing is facing a lawsuit in New York where he now lives, lawyers said Monday. Guo Wengui, a real estate tycoon who lives in a luxury Fifth Avenue apartment overlooking Manhattan’s Central Park, is being sued by nine creditors for US$50 million over outstanding debts, their attorney Kevin Tung told AFP.// Source: Hong Kong Free Press, 13 June 2017.

• //Three executives of the flagship company of fugitive Chinese tycoon Guo Wengui pleaded guilty to fraud charges on Friday in a court hearing in the northeastern port city of Dalian. Yang Ying, the chief financial officer of Beijing Pangu Investment Company Limited, Lu Tao, its deputy general manager, and Xie Honglin, a financial manager, had been charged with obtaining loans using fraudulent documents, according to a notice posted by the Xigang District People’s Court in Dalian.// Source: SCMP, 09 June 2017.

• //[C]hinese tycoon Pan Shiyi, whose name has also appeared in Guo’s allegations, responded with an open letter accusing Guo of working with the secret police in building his business empire. Both Pan Shiyi and Hu Shuli have filed documents in the United States to sue Guo for libel. Opinions are also split over the legal action. Some believe that Pan and Hu represent Wang Qishan in the internal political power struggle. Others believe the legal action will help reveal more information about corruption in government.// Source: Hong Kong Free Press, 10 June 2017.

• //Guo opened his Twitter account in early 2017 and started revealing details of the corrupt practices of government officials including those with hidden wealth outside China. By end of May, Guo had 225,000 followers on Twitter. Guo has explained that his intentions are personal: reclaim his money and life, as well as retaliate against those who persecuted him. He has put forward seven principles for his personal campaign: “Against using illegal means in anti-graft, against corruption in fighting against corruption, against using public security force in anti-graft, against police-state; would not stand against people, the country and [President] Xi Jinping” […] Notably, Guo’s posted a series of photos and shareholding charts on his YouTube and Twitter accounts, identifying relatives of China’s anti-graft czar, Wang Qishan, who allegedly has secret shares in the HNA Group, a prominent aviation conglomerate which went on a global acquisition spree, including the Hilton, aside from owning massive wealth offshore. […] The 19th National Congress of the CCP will be held in Beijing in the autumn of 2017, and there are speculations that 69-year-old Wang Qishan will remain a key figure in the standing committee of the party’s politburo. News and information about Guo are strictly censored in China, though official media outlets have published stories accusing Guo of bribery, fraud, and rape. However, the comment sections on these news websites have been disabled.// Source: Hong Kong Free Press, 10 June 2017.

• //報道說，出人意料的是，在這之後中國當局似乎叫停了這些行動。針對郭文貴的宣傳攻勢停息了。原本被禁止出國的郭文貴妻女，也獲准離開中國去紐約同他團聚。報道引述加州大學聖迭戈分校教授史宗瀚（Victor Shih）的話說，中國政府對郭文貴的態度突然變化，顯示中共最高領導層內部對如何對付郭文貴可能意見不統一。// Source: BBC (Chinese Edition), 02 June 2017.

CHINA – INTERNET

1. Government shutdown on online account of celebrity news

On 07 June, the Network Information Office in Beijing suddenly announced the shutdown on over 60 accounts (some report suggests 80+) which generated celebrity gossip news, in accordance with the newly effective cybersecurity law. An observer from the Initium noted that a number of banned accounts were operated by reporters who were previously from the “Southern Group” (南方系) but turned to managing those accounts full-time as they could generate good revenues from online advertisements through those accounts. The officials explained that the shutdown is intended to clean up the vulgar and sensationalist coverage of celebrity lifestyle, to promote “socialist core values” and to protect the youth for the upcoming summer vacation. Some Chinese netizens support the ban (for example on Weibo here). Lo Shih-hung from National Chung Cheng University in Taiwan argued that the shutdown could be related to the upcoming 19^th CCP Congress because much entertainment news could be associated with social issues in the form of parody, especially in light of the repeated news about Guo Wengui who claimed to know business secrets of many party leaders.

• //On June 7, China’s internet censor, Beijing Network Information Office, suddenly announced the closing down of dozens of popular social media accounts– mostly related to celebrity gossip and entertainment news– both on Weibo (Chinese equivalent of Twitter) and WeChat (China’s most popular social network). Although the Office hasn’t published the list of shuttered accounts, some reports said at least 60 accounts have fallen victims to the campaign. […] According to Beijing Network Information Office, the crackdown on paparazzi news is for the young people to have a healthy Internet life as the summer vacation is approaching. Meanwhile, the Office also encourages the netizens to report on any “vulgar” information, in order to maintain the purification of the cyberspace. Those individuals who provide important clues will get rewards.// Source: The Diplomat, 09 June 2017.

• //At a meeting on Wednesday with representatives from China’s leading internet companies, officials from the Beijing bureau of the Cyberspace Administration of China, the country’s top online regulator, called on the companies to “actively promote socialist core values” and create a “healthy, uplifting environment for mainstream opinion” by combating vulgar and sensationalist coverage of celebrity scandals and lifestyles.// Source: New York Times, 09 June 2017.

• //The shutdowns were enabled by the country’s new cyber security law that was passed in November 2016 at the bimonthly session of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee after a third reading, and went into effect on June 1.// Source: Xinhua, 09 June 2017.
• //2012年微信走紅，推出公眾號服務，成了自媒體生長的沃土。在這個平台上，明星的婚姻糾紛，性和藥物醜聞完全暴露在公眾眼前，一則則生猛的故事串起一個個社交群組，全民狗仔的推波助瀾下，甚至可以將娛樂人物送上社會板塊。熱門的公眾號娛樂推文，閱讀量動輒超過十萬。「10萬+」也成為業界投放廣告參考的重要數值。如此熱度之下，中國的娛樂產業與下游搭建起了新的通路。[…] 不少跑娛樂或文化線的記者在三四年前都以「試試」的心態開設了社交平台帳號，他們初期在傳統媒體有一份正職，工餘撰寫公眾號內容。其中一部分人越做越好，索性離職，全身心做娛樂帳號。這一次封鎖的微博和娛樂公眾號，背後主理人大多都出身媒體，不少來自「南方系」。// Source: The Initium, 09 June 2017.
• //研究中國大陸媒體環境的中正大學傳播系教授羅世宏告訴中央社記者，從政治上來解讀這次關閉帳號的動作，最大關鍵就是十九大。再不到半年就是中共第19次全國代表大會（十九大），事關高層人事布局和權力分配，加上滯留海外的富商郭文貴持續透過網路爆料中共高層貪腐，羅世宏表示，這用中共的話說就是「內外形勢複雜」，因此整體環境的穩定是最重要的。他說，許多娛樂新聞透過嘲諷，還是會和社會議題相連結。而中共的網路治理向來有「九不准」，擾亂社會秩序、散布謠言、色情和淫穢等都屬於禁止事項，如果要擴大解釋，娛樂新聞內容都可能觸犯上述法令。官方這次的大動作引發許多網民關注。在大陸有限度言論自由的環境下，許多民眾對議論時政新聞早已知道有敏感性，但沒想過，娛樂資訊現在也面臨這麼嚴峻的傳播環境。// Source: Central News Agency, 09 June 2017.

2. Quick dispute between the e-commerce giant and the express delivery giant in China

On 01 June, one of the express delivery giants in China, S.F. Express (Shunfeng, 顺丰), suddenly announced cessation of sharing data with Cainiao Network (菜鸟网络), a data-sharing facilitation platform managed by the e-commerce giant Taobao, a deal between the two companies since 2016. The spat caused Taobao customers unable to choose S.F. Express for goods delivery among other options, and also resulted in non-delivery of some express mails as well as agricultural produces. S.F. Express accused the Cainiao Network of demanding types of data beyond the scope of their cooperation. Tencent, Taobao’s archrival in the e-commerce sector, soon announced its support for S.F. Express. The dispute soon caught the attention of the State Post Bureau of PRC, the authority regulating the sector, and intervened into the dispute by issuing a “reminder”, which demands the involved companies to think about politics and the whole situation (daju, 大局) instead of letting their dispute create negative social impacts. It also asked the persons-in-charge of both companies to Beijing for reconciliation. The dispute was settled within days and was covered by many Chinese media, including the Xinhua. Analysts argued that it is a business dispute in which both sides are very much concerned about keeping the most valuable assets of their respective company, the big data. One analyst on Caixin contended that the incident could reflect Taobao’s quest for greater monopoly by having the data of express delivery, a field Taobao is currently not involved and thus must rely on other companies, but he argued the market edge of S.F. Express makes it more independent of Taobao for profits, which gives S.F. Express the strength to part from Taobao. Analysts on Xinhua also asked the two companies to resolve the business conflict peacefully to achieve a win-win situation. On 03 June, the State Post Bureau announced that the two companies resumed the data-sharing “in light of protecting the interests of consumers and maintaining market order”. Soon after the incident, the Ministry of Commerce asked its provincial bureau to investigate the impact of the incident on agricultural produces. Despite the resumption of cooperation, Caixin reports that S.F. Express and Cainiao still have some fundamental problems to resolve such as the safety of their data and who to make data verification.

• //2017年6月1日儿童节，中国市值最大的快递物流企业顺丰控股（SZ），和最大的物流及供应链平台菜鸟网络，打了起来。顺丰在前一天傍晚通知菜鸟网络说要关闭智能自提柜“丰巢”的数据接口服务。第二天凌晨接口果然关闭，消费者无法直接从淘宝、天猫后台查看丰巢的物流信息。中午过后，在淘宝、天猫发货的物流选项中，也就没有顺丰了。菜鸟网络在6月1日下午14点32分发布《关于顺丰暂停物流数据接口的声明》称，顺丰主动关闭了丰巢自提柜和淘宝平台物流数据信息回传；四个小时后，顺丰回应称是菜鸟单方面切断信息接口。菜鸟和顺丰打架，惊动了作为邮政企业和快递企业主管单位的中国国家邮政局。2017年6月1日晚间23点20分，国家邮政局官方微博发声，称“要讲政治，顾大局，寻求解决问题的最大公约数，切实维护市场秩序和消费者合法权益，决不能因企业间的纠纷产生严重的社会影响和负面效应。”此时距离菜鸟网络在当天下午14点32分发表《菜鸟关于顺丰暂停物流数据接口的声明》，不到9个小时。// Source: Southern Weekly, 02 June 2017.

• //顺丰方面称，丰巢在2016年跟菜鸟开始合作，合作内容包括菜鸟提供消费者手机号信息给丰巢，丰巢反馈快递出入柜信息、丰巢网点推送等相关快递柜物流信息给菜鸟。[…] 顺丰方面给出的理由则是，菜鸟在续约中，提出所有丰巢快递柜信息的触发必须通过菜鸟裹裹，取件码信息无条件给到菜鸟，丰巢需要返回所有包裹信息给菜鸟（包括非淘系订单）。这意味着，顺丰的物流数据将向菜鸟彻底开放。顺丰方面称，丰巢难以接受以上合作条款。//Source: Caixin, 01 June 2017.

• //[菜]鸟网络此举的核心是打造垄断性、封闭性的服务平台。菜鸟的回应声称，菜鸟不碰具体物流配送，没有一辆快递车，没有一个快递员，与快递厂商是合作而非竞争关系。但这是否代表菜鸟与快递厂商是和睦融洽的？ […] 据阿里的数据，2016年菜鸟网络日均处理包裹量达到5700万个，而2016年快递行业日均包裹为8000万个，菜鸟的处理量占比为71%，按《反垄断法》的规定，已经达到垄断的标准。[…] 进一步来看，同样是信息安全，为什么四通一达没有出面反对，而只有顺丰跳起来？这是由菜鸟网络的优势与顺丰优势错位的原因。菜鸟的优势是海量的阿里系电商的订单，四通一达都依赖于淘宝天猫的订单，如圆通公司50%的业务来自阿里系电商，离开阿里，四通一达可能就活不下去了，但顺丰的订单主要是商务件，来自电商的很少，同时顺丰的业务有很强的不可替代性，如生鲜农产品、海河鲜、高价值物品的保安运输只有顺丰有能力快递，消费者和商家也只信任顺丰。// Source: The Paper, 02 June 2017.

• //中国物流学会特约研究员杨达卿说，所有的物流信息平台都会从商家获取大数据，如果顺丰今天跟菜鸟闹掰了，今后还将面临同样的问题。[…] 北京邮电大学邮政发展研究中心教授赵国君说，双方关闭数据接口，是一种极端的解决方式。数据不通了，目前对于行业最大的影响，就是生鲜农产品配送不畅通。作为行业领军型企业，要从国民经济发展的大局来考虑问题，只有产业链顺畅了，企业才能共赢。// Source: Xinhua, 02 June 2017.

• //Cainiao, the logistics affiliate of e-commerce juggernaut Alibaba, and China’s largest private courier SF Express will resume data sharing following an intervention by China’s State Post Bureau, ending a data standoff between both companies that could have impacted over a million merchants and consumers on Alibaba’s e-commerce marketplaces.// Source: SCMP, 04 June 2017.

• //根据商务部指示，要求江苏、浙江、山东、广东、广西省商务主管部门，迅速组织相关协会、合作社、生产基地、生产大户等，了解当地时令生鲜农产品，例如樱桃、荔枝、枇杷等，受菜鸟网络与顺丰速运纠纷的影响情况，并从品种、销量、价格、销售额以及农户反映等方面形成分析报告，反馈至电子商务和信息化司。 […] 虽然双方在表面上的关系趋于缓和，但数据之争并未结束。从目前来看，物流在一定程度上影响着产品的质量和价格，顺丰与菜鸟之间的争执对农产品产生了影响。 //  Source: The Paper, 06 June 2017.
• //尽管目前双方搁置争议，菜鸟与顺丰依原有方式继续合作，但是双方在数据方面的矛盾并未得到根本性解决：在丰巢自提柜数据究竟如何才算安全、应由谁来验证的问题上，顺丰和菜鸟尚未有一致结论，而这将是双方未来要达成合作真正需要解决的问题。// Source: Caixin, 14 June 2017.

HONG KONG – POLITICS

Turnout number of June 4 annual vigil hits 8-year low in Hong Kong

On 4 June, Hong Kong held the 28^th annual vigil of the Tiananmen Incident in Victoria Park, Causeway Bay. The turnout number of participants dropped to the 8-year low at 110,000 since 2008. The donations received by the organizer as well as pro-democracy parties around the event venue also dropped compared to last year. A survey by HKUPOP, which has conducted a similar survey for 25 years, released the latest figure. The research manager from the organization explained that while the mainstream opinion regarded what the students did was right and supported vindication of the incident, the proportion of respondents who regarded what the students did was not correct as well as those who do not favor vindication of the incident increase to a peak since 1993 and 2006 respectively. Controversy raised by some pro-independence groups continued this year. Before the vigil, one local university student union issued a statement urging the commemoration of June 4 Incident to come to an end, arguing focusing on the local issues as more important. After the annual vigil in Causeway Bay, some localist groups as well as lawmakers staged a protest in front of the central liaison office, asking for the vindication of June 4 Incident and the release of Liu Xiaobo. Some news related to June 4 is reported on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In relation to the localist movement in Hong Kong, a recent public opinion polling by CUHK during late May and early June suggests that support for Hong Kong independence has dropped significantly from about 40% in 2016 to 15% in 2017 among the youth (15-24). Meanwhile, the public satisfactions with the implementation of “One Country Two Systems”, the HKSAR and central government rise (see here for the full result in Chinese).

• //A sea of candle light blanketed Victoria Park on Sunday night as tens of thousands of people converged there to mourn those killed in Beijing’s bloody military crackdown in Tiananmen Square 28 years ago, but in numbers that were the lowest for nine years. Organisers said 110,000 people attended the event, the lowest turnout since 2008. Last year’s memorial drew 125,000 people. Police put the figure at 18,000 at the height of the event, down on their estimate of 21,800 last year.// Source: SCMP, 05 June 2017.

• //Donations to the organiser of the annual candlelight vigil commemorating the Tiananmen Massacre has dropped around 17 per cent compared to last year. Pro-democracy parties also received fewer donations from the event than in previous years. The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China said it received HK$1.4 million in donations at the vigil on Sunday – HK$340,000 less than it received in 2016.// Source: Hong Kong Free Press, 06 June 2017.

• //民意研究計劃研究經理李偉健分析：「今年是六四事件28週年，民研計劃亦已經連續進行了25次六四週年調查。宏觀而論，香港巿民的主流意見繼續認為中國政府當年處理不當、同情北京學生及支持平反六四，但認為北京學生做法錯誤的比率就升至調查自1993年開始以來的新高，而不支持平反六四的比率亦升至2006年以來新高。// Source: HKUPOP, 03 June 2017.

• //More than 200 Hong Kong activists from localist groups and political parties staged a protest march through the city’s busy streets Sunday night after the end of the annual vigil marking the 28th anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. […] Leading the “post-vigil” march, which kicked off around 10.15pm, were Joshua Wong Chi-fung, secretary general of localist political party Demosisto; pan-democratic lawmaker “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung of the League of Social Democrats and the party’s chairman, Avery Ng Man-yuen; and Fastbeat Tam Tak-chi of People Power.// Source: SCMP, 05 June 2017.

• //On Saturday, the group [Student Union of Chinese University of Hong Kong] issued a statement that said: “The union believes the commemoration has come to an end, and June 4 needs to be marked with a full stop until the echo sounds.” It accused the vigil’s organiser, the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, of turning the event into a ritual and “making use of the public’s moral sentiment to build up its political capital”. A group of outraged Chinese University alumni and students responded by issuing their own statement criticising the union for being “ignorant”, “cold-blooded” and “lazy”.// Source: SCMP, 05 June 2017.

• //去年的調查顯示，在15歲至24歲的年輕人當中，有高達2%支持港獨，25%反對。「四成年輕人支持港獨」的現象，惹來各方注視，成為推動港獨社團的文宣內容，也期之比率可以進一步上升。但事隔一年，在同一年齡群組，支持港獨的比例大跌至15%，反對港獨的百分率大增至43%，「撐港獨」與「反港獨」的比例大逆轉。// Source: The Stand News, 08 June 2017.

• //調查亦發現，市民對落實一國兩制的滿意度為17分（10分滿分），創2014年以來的新高。受訪者對特區政府及中央政府的信任亦是近年新高，分別達4.86分給4.91分。不過，大部分市民認為本港回歸20年後，整體狀況變差。受訪者中有62.9%認為本港社會狀況比20年前差，19.2%認為「差不多」，只有15.4%認為情況變好。// Source: Hong Kong 01, 10 June 2017.

China Digital Times reported extensively how Mainland Chinese creatively commemorated the Incident on the Internet and how the authorities stepped up efforts in controlling the social media on this particular occasion. The Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen also released a statement on social media, offering to help China for democratic transition with the Taiwan’s experience.

• //As the 28th anniversary of the crackdown approached, activists have been put under surveillance, detained, or questioned, while the usual internet controls were tightened. Foreign users of Sina Weibo were not allowed to post images or videos from Saturday through Monday. […] Family members of the victims, who are part of a loosely-knit group called Tiananmen Mothers, issued a public statement calling for an official investigation and redress of the events of 1989, just as they have every year for the past decade. […] As Elizabeth Lynch writes on her China Law and Policy blog, people around China find creative ways every year to commemorate the deaths despite the official silence on the topic. […] Facebook users who tried to commemorate June 4th by installing a memorial frame around their profile picture had their photos temporarily rejected by the social media platform. Facebook is banned in China, but the company has been appealing to the Chinese authorities in an apparent effort to be allowed back into the country. Facebook has since apologized.// Source: China Digital Times, 03 June 2017.

• //Speaking on Sunday, the 28th anniversary of the violent suppression of student-led pro-democracy protests in and around Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, Tsai said the biggest gap between Taiwan and China was democracy and freedom, needling Beijing at a time when relations are at a low point. « For democracy: some are early, others are late, but we all get there in the end, » Tsai said on social media. « Borrowing on Taiwan’s experience, I believe that China can shorten the pain of democratic reform. » After nearly 40 years of martial law imposed by the Nationalists on Taiwan, the island in the late 1980s began its own transition to democracy, holding direct presidential elections since 1996.// Source: Reuters, 04 June 2017.

TAIWAN – DIPLOMACY

Panama’s diplomatic break with Taiwan

On 13 June, Panama announced to cease its relations with Republic of China (Taiwan) and established diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. The Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen has been active in maintaining Taiwan-Panama relations after her inauguration in May 2016. She said the Panama’s action was “deeply regrettable” and vowed not to give in to the threats and coercions from the Beijing Government. Meanwhile, The Beijing Government halted the diplomatic victory, and Xinhua quoted KMT representatives that President the DDP had only itself to blame. Panama was the second country which cuts off ties with Taiwan since the Tsai Presidency, leaving Taiwan with only 20 diplomatic allies.

• //[T]sai called a press conference and said Beijing had suppressed Taiwan on the international stage in a myriad of ways. « However, the R.O.C. is a sovereign country. This is an indisputable truth. (Taiwan’s) sovereignty cannot be challenged or exchanged, » she said. […] Addressing Beijing, Tsai said Taiwan had upheld its responsibility when it came to maintaining cross-strait peace and stability. She condemned Beijing’s actions, which she said have harmed the status quo. « The people of Taiwan cannot accept this, » Tsai said. « We cannot sit by and watch as Taiwan’s interests are continually threatened and challenged. »// Source: The China Post, 13 June 2017.

• //Panama signed a joint communique with China in Beijing Tuesday to establish diplomatic relations and break so-called « diplomatic ties » with Taiwan, a move perceived as more extensive recognition of the one-China principle and a warning to the Taiwan administration. After signing the communique, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told reporters that the political decision made by the Panamanian government meets the fundamental interests of the country, and accords with the development trend of the times as well as the one-China framework already in place in the international community.// Source: Xinhua, 13 June 2017.

• //The Central American nation was the second diplomatic ally to cut ties with Taiwan since Tsai took office, the first being Sao Tome and Principe, which recognized Beijing in December 2016. In March 2016, two months after Tsai won the presidential election, China re-established official ties with Gambia, more than two years after the small West African country cut off relations with Taiwan, then under President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九).// Source: The China Post, 13 June 2017.

• //The development was a major diplomatic setback for Taiwan. Ms. Tsai visited Panama last summer, shortly after taking office, for the opening of an expanded Panama Canal. The first ship to sail through the expanded canal was a Chinese one. In January, Ms. Tsai returned to the region to attend the inauguration of President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua. She also made stops in Guatemala and Honduras, during a trip that was presented domestically as shoring up Taiwan’s alliances in Central America.// Source: New York Times, 13 June 2017.

Analysts argued that the action of Panama might trigger a domino effect on the switch of diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. Jonathan Sullivan, the director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, contended that it is a severe blow to Tsai Ing-wen’s government as Panama is regarded as an important partner which is the third largest economy among those countries which recognize Taipei but not Beijing. Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei, argued that Beijing is advancing diplomatically due to the US retreat from mainstream international politics. Shannon Tiezzi from the Diplomat pointed out that the Taiwan-Panama relations have been rocky from time to time. Alternation of their relations was rumoured back in 2009 but Beijing did not want to antagonize Ma Ying-jeoh’s Administration of the time, resulting in a “diplomatic truce” and the stability of Taiwan-Panama relations.

• //Panama “was at the top of the list” of Taiwan’s most important remaining diplomatic allies, said Ross Feingold, a senior adviser in Taipei at D.C. International Advisory. “It is very possible that the remaining countries will switch,” Feingold said of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in Central America, noting that China tended to space out such moves to maximize public relations and strategic value.// Source: Source: New York Times, 13 June 2017.

• //Jonathan Sullivan, the director of the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, said that Panama’s defection was “a substantial foreign policy hit” for Ms Tsai’s government, which is already suffering sinking approval ratings because of domestic problems. He added that while Beijing would continue efforts to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, such a policy was unlikely to reverse the growing sense on the island of a separate Taiwanese identity.// Source: Financial Times, 13 June 2017.

• //Panama’s defection is the latest diplomatic coup for Beijing, which is capitalising on the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s foreign policy by exerting its influence from Southeast Asia to South Korea. “China is exercising smart power more often, while the US is retreating from mainstream international politics,” said Huang Kwei-bo, a professor of diplomacy at National Chengchi University in Taipei.// Source: Financial Times, 13 June 2017.

• //Wallace Gregson Jr., an American former general and assistant secretary of defense for Asian affairs who is now a consultant with Avascent Global Advisors, said that China’s primary goal was to isolate Ms. Tsai’s government. But, he said, the move reflected the impact on American policies under Mr. Trump. “Any related discomfort it might bring to the Trump administration is an added benefit, perhaps,” he wrote in an email. “But it does show that Beijing has options that could affect U.S. actions elsewhere.”// Source: New York Times, 13 June 2017.
• //Panama is an interesting case study in the cross-strait dynamics of Taiwan’s international recognition. The Latin American country was rumored to want to switch diplomatic recognition to Beijing as far back as 2009; it was reportedly rebuffed because China wanted to avoid antagonizing new Taiwanese President Ma, who came to office promising to improve cross-strait ties. That foreshadowed an informal “diplomatic truce” under most of Ma’s term, where Beijing refrained from encouraging Taiwan’s diplomatic allies to switch recognition. But that didn’t wholly tamp down concerns about Panama’s commitment to Taiwan. In 2014, Taiwan’s then-Deputy Foreign Minister Simon Ko had to specifically rebuff rumors of an impending change in Taiwan-Panama relations in a report to the Legislative Yuan’s Foreign and National Defense Committee. “Ko stated that as such, the diplomatic relationship between Taiwan and Panama is unlikely to alter without a major event as catalyst,” China Post reported at the time, summarizing Ko’s remarks.// Source: The Diplomat, 13 June 2017.