CHINA – POLITICS

1. What will follow after the Third Plenum?

   1. On Tuesday December 3, Xinhua reported that Xi Jinping and other key party leaders have convened a meeting with non-party representatives (黨外人士) to collect their thoughts on the upcoming economic work. Xi said that “明年要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，同时要以改革统领全局，把改革贯穿经济社会发展各领域各环节”
   2. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planning agency which has been dubbed “the little State Council” for its unparalleled power among government agencies to approve or reject major industrial projects, is likely to undergo a major transformation (or marginalization?) in the years ahead, as the Party shows increased willingness to move away from an economy heavily reliant on investment towards more liberalized markets. The transformation of the NDRC’s role comes as the party plans to set up a central leading work group, probably headed by President Xi Jinping or Premier Li Keqiang, on deepening reforms.
   3. Change of cadre evaluation criteria from GDP/economic growth/revenue to social indicators such as environment, welfare and sustainability
   4. Anhui announced it would let farmers in 20 districts and counties sell the land they live on and allow villages to sell or lease the land farmers collectively own, or transfer ownership to a company that would develop the land 土地流轉試點改革. A skeleton communiqué from the party Central Committee’s third plenum said the party aimed to “establish a unified urban and rural land market for construction” and would “give farmers more property rights”. But the central government has been cautious about allowing the trading of rural land designated for housing lest it leave too many farmers homeless and trigger social unrest. 目標是2015年底，實現農村集體所有的建設用地、農用地、未利用地和農村範圍內的國有土地確權登記發證全覆蓋。
      1. Analysis in SCMP Chinese
   5. Tax reform (to be continued…)
   6. Despite the Third Plenum’s decision to abolish labour re-education camps, many re-education through labor camps are being rebranded as drug rehabilitation centers where inmates can be incarcerated for two years or more without trial rather than shut down. According to Reuters, labour camps across China began changing their names to drug centers earlier this year in provinces including Guangdong, Hainan, Henan, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, Yunnan and Zhejiang, as well as in Shanghai and Beijing, after Public Security chief announced it would be abolished by 2013. They also took it as a cue to start releasing some people who were there for non-drug offences. The camps also hold petty criminals, prostitutes, petitioners and members of the banned spiritual group Falun Gong, rights activists say. New York-based Human Rights Watch estimates more than 60% of the 160,000 people in labor camps at the start of the year were there for drug offenses. Those people were unlikely to see any change in their treatment.

1. China declared Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in East China Sea which covered the Diaoyu Islands

   1. According to Beijing, all aircraft entering the new air defense zone must notify Chinese authorities and maintain two-way radio communication. They are subject to emergency military measures if they do not identify themselves or obey Beijing’s orders.
   2. United States demonstrated their disregard of China’s new rules by flying B-52 bombers through the airspace. US officials added that the aircraft encountered no problems. Japan called the zone invalid, unenforceable and dangerous. Unnamed sources at Japan’s defence ministry claimed that Japanese military and paramilitary planes had flown thorough the zone without any resistance from Chinese jets, according to the Asahi Shimbun. Taiwan and South Korea both rejected it.
   3. At home, Beijing’s move was greeted by hardline Chinese nationalists. Chinese critics accused US and Japan of their double standard: “It is known to all that the United States is among the first to set up an air defense zone in 1950, and later more than 20 countries have followed suit, which Washington has taken for granted.”
   4. Dennis Blasko, an Asia analyst at think tank CNA’s China Security Affairs Group and a former Army attache in Beijing, believed Beijing was responding in kind to Japan’s strict enforcement of its own air defense zone in the East China Sea. A Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, Yang Yujun, said that China would consider lifting its ADIZ 44 years after Japan revoked its own, which has been in place for that long.
   5. Following the flight of two US B-52 bombers, China responded on Thursday to growing international defiance both by sending advanced fighter jets to the area and trying to play down any threat of military retaliation—underlining the confusion and escalated tension over the territorial dispute. Analysts interviewed by WSJ said that “China’s apparent easing of its original warning suggests its fighters will monitor and escort rather than repel S., Japanese and South Korean aircraft that violate the rules of the zone”. They believe that “China’s ambiguity may be a deliberate attempt to make the U.S. and its allies wary of continuing military flights into the zone without observing its regulations, the analysts and diplomats said. But it could also stem from poor planning and a failure to consult other countries or experts”.
   6. What is really the issue?
      1. Rory Medcalf, The Interpreter: “An ADIZ is not a provocative or negative step in itself; indeed, it can be in the interests of stability and security of the nation enforcing it. Many countries have such zones already, including Japan, South Korea and the US, which started the whole trend decades ago.”
      2. CDT: The distinction between aircraft aiming for national airspace and merely transiting the ADIZ is central to the American complaint. A short statement of “deep concern” from secretary of state John Kerry last Saturday focused on this point: “We don’t support efforts by any State to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace. The United States does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace.” The rules issued by China’s Ministry of Defense appeared to make no such concession.
   7. S. Vice President Joe Biden arrived in China amid concern about the ADIZ. Before China, Biden visited Tokyo, where upon arrive he called for China to “rescind” threats against unannounced aircrafts entering the ADIZ, even as the FAA had advised all commercial U.S. carriers to comply with Beijing’s requests. Biden said the U.S. is “deeply concerned” about China’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea. But Japan, on the other hand, has used stronger words. Japan’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs said that “the Government of Japan has already made strong protests to China, conveying the above-mentioned concerns to China, and demanded China to revoke such measures.”
      1. Official remarks from the 5.5 hour meeting between Xi and Biden made by the leaders during their 5 1/2 hrs of meetings notes nothing about the ADIZ:­ Biden told Chinese President Xi Jinping he believed Xi was a candid and constructive person. “In developing this new relationship, both qualities are sorely needed…Candor generates trust. Trust is the basis on which real change, constructive change, is made.”
   8. Apart from muscle flexing at East China Seas, China also launched its first moon rover mission – the latest step in an ambitious space programme seen as a symbol of its rising global stature. But debris has destroyed villagers home in Hunan.

3. Anti-corruption campaign carries on

   1. This year so far, already a dozen of state-owned firms managers were accused of corruption. Most recent ones include managers in state insurance company and China Southern Airline.
   2. The newest target was allegedly Zhou Bin, the eldest son of Zhou Yongkang, who according to Reuters is in “quasi-detention” after returning from the U.S. to assist with an investigation into one of his father’s allies Jiang Jiemin. Meanwhile, the rumour that Zhou Yongkang is arrested persists, the most recent one being Taiwan’s UDN and overseas Boxun.
   3. The official Renminwang ran a one-year review of the campaign: ２０１２年１２月４日，中共中央政治局會議一致同意關於改進工作作風、密切聯系群眾的八項規定，如今已近一年。記者２日從中央紀委黨風政風監督室獲悉，截至今年１０月底，各地查處違反中央八項規定精神問題共計１７３８０起，處理１９８９６人，給予黨紀政紀處分４６７５人。… 中央紀委黨風政風監督室主任許傳智表示，要緊盯關鍵節點步步推進，一個“標”一個“標”地治理，積小勝為大勝，以突出問題的解決帶動作風的全面好轉。
   4. From the Global Times: “Among these, 4,675 Party members at different levels were found to have had involvement in 17,380 cases. Punishments were handed down to violators by administrative or Party discipline agencies by the end of October, according to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) of the Communist Party of China (CPC). The “eight-point” bureaucracy and formalism rules introduced by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on December 4, 2012 asked Party officials to reduce pomp, ceremony, bureaucratic visits and meetings. The CCDI will further improve its supervision system by sending disciplinary inspection agencies, which used to be dispatched only to supervise government departments, to the Party and state organs, said Li Xueqin, head of the research division under the CCDI.”
      1. In 2011, the total number of cases that has to do with discipline is much greater. Altogether there were 171,436 cases and 160,718 were given punishment, of which 134,464 were given party disciplinary punishment (党纪处分) and 38,487 were given government disciplinary punishment (政纪处分).
   5. The Discipline Inspection Commission substantiated the anti-corruption content in the Third Plenum Resolution:
      1. 派驻制度 “全覆盖”，（1）中央纪委向中央和国家机关都要派驻纪检机构，（2） 派驻机构对派出机关负责， 各项工作保障由驻在单位负责，（3）工作经费应列入驻在单位预算
      2. 巡视制度“全覆盖”: 对所有地方、部门、企事业单位都应当进行巡视，以发现问题，形成震慑
      3. 全防控廉政风险制度: 廉政風險防控制度體系，建立健全風險預警、糾錯整改、內外監督、考核評價和責任追究機制
      4. 防止利益冲突制度： 要进一步完善市场机制，重点解决公共资源配置、公共资产交易、公共产品生产等领域中利益冲突问题
      5. 健全领导干部报告个人有关事项等制度：推行新提任领导干部配偶子女从业、财产、出国境等有关事项公开制度的试点，抓紧制定领导干部个人有关事项报告抽查核实办法，加强报告核查结果的运用和违规惩戒力度；建立健全对国家工作人员配偶子女移居国（境）外的管理制度，制定配偶子女移居国（境）外的国家工作人员任职岗位管理办法，强化对党员、干部特别是领导干部的监督
   6. Yet, despite the anti-corruption drive, three Chinese anti-corruption activists who unfurled banners calling for government officials to declare their assets stood trial on Tuesday for “illegal assembly”. They were charged after taking photographs of themselves displaying the banners outside a housing complex in April. They were also associated with the “New Citizens Movement”.

4. State growing more accepting of NGOs?

   1. Third Plenum Resolution mentions: 激發社會組織活力。正確處理政府和社會關係，加快實施政社分開，推進社會組織明確權責、依法自治、發揮作用。適合由社會組織提供的公共服務和解決的事項，交由社會組織承擔。支持和發展志願服務組織。限期實現行業協會商會與行政機關真正脫鉤，重點培育和優先發展行業協會商會類、科技類、公益慈善類、城鄉社區服務類社會組織，成立時直接依法申請登記。加強對社會組織和在華境外非政府組織的管理，引導它們依法開展活動。
   2. Interviewed by the SCMP, Wang Zhenyao, director of the China Philanthropy Research Institute at Beijing Normal University, said the government has been wary of NGOs for fear they may have a political agenda or become a force for grass-roots campaigns. He said he was convinced the government was easing its policy towards the sector. “The third plenum reflects bold reform to allow NGOs’ development,” he said. “The recent NGOs’ smooth registration shows the new reforms were a positive step…NGOs have proven their dedication in social services to care for the elderly, children and the disabled and they can provide supplementary resources and support to the government’s benefit.”
   3. Another scholar interviewed by the SCMP, Jia Xijin, a professor at the NGO Research Institute at Tsinghua University, said the government had tested a more relaxed policy towards NGOs in Guangdong province and it may now be rolled out across the country. Guangdong passed regulations last year that allowed registered NGOs to raise funds from the public. This led many groups to shift their operations south.
   4. Our Free Sky, the NGO which helps children from poor families go to school, successfully registered as a private foundation last month.

5. Bloomberg crisis in China

   1. While Bloomberg’s controversial efforts to secure its presence in China through alleged self-censorship appear to go nowhere, the company’s Chinese bureaus were the targets of unannounced inspections last week, according to Fortune magazine. The visits revealed that Bloomberg chief editor’s comparison of China to Nazi Germany seems to have rather backfired, as during the visits at least one Chinese official asked the company for an apology from Winkler.
   2. Fortune: “[…] Details of the inspections, conducted on the same day at the news bureaus in Beijing and Shanghai, are sketchy. It’s unclear how many officials were present or what government agency they represented. Different sources say, variously, that the visits were characterized as “security inspections” or “safety inspections.” But journalists inside Bloomberg view the appearance by civil government officials (they weren’t police) as an act of intimidation — precisely the reaction Bloomberg was eager to avoid.”
   3. On Monday this week, Bloomberg journalist Robert Hutton was excluded from a press conference in Beijing given by Chinese premier Li Keqiang and visiting British prime minister David Cameron. He was informed about the decision by a British official, a member of the British parliamentary lobby who is accompanying the prime minister to China, that he would not be admitted to the press conference.
   4. Journalists from the New York Times, Bloomberg News and other organizations are facing the loss of their Chinese visas on Dec. 31, at which point they and their families would be forced to leave the country, a situation to which the visiting Joe Biden has complained to Xi Jinping.
   5. China Law and Policy’s Elizabeth Lynch explained the visa renewal process in a broader overview of recent restrictions: What Mooney labels “childish” behavior – the use of the visa process to ostensibly chill the foreign press – appears to have become a strategy that the Chinese government is more quick to employ. Which it can do on an annual basis. For resident journalists in China, the journalist visa (“J-1 visa”) is only good for a year, expiring every December. Beginning in November, every resident foreign journalist begins the renewal process, first re-applying with MOFA for a press card and then, once obtaining the press card, renewing her J-1 visa with the PSB. But what should be a routine event has turned into an anxiety-ridden affair. In its November 2012 survey, the FCCC found that since the end of 2011, at least 29 resident foreign correspondents were threatened with a visa non-renewal. The respondents’ quotes (119 FCCC members responded to the survey) show that some of these threats were linked to specific reporting or journalists’ “attitude.” Currently, all of China’s resident foreign correspondents are undergoing the visa renewal process.”
      1. Is this going to encourage self-censorship?

6. Liu Xia, wife of China dissident Nobel Laureates Liu Xiaobo, was said to be suffering from deep depression

   1. Liu Xia wrote to prominent human rights lawyer Mo Shaoping in August that she was “close to going crazy, close to mental collapse” during the time of the trial of her brother, Liu Hui, on fraud charges.

7. China’s state security arrests up 19% in 2012, said Dui Hua’s Human Rights Journal

   • China arrested 1,105 people for “endangering state security” (ESS) crimes in 2012, up 19 percent from 2011, according to official statistics released in China Law Yearbook 2013. The number of people indicted rose 8 percent to 1,049.
   • ESS trials involved more people per case allowing for a decline in ESS trials amid increases in arrests and indictments. The number of first-instance ESS cases received by Chinese courts across the country fell 13.6% year-on-year to 369 in 2012. An average of 2.7 people were indicted per ESS case—compared with a person-per-case ratio of 1.5 for all types of indictments (including ESS) in 2012 and of 2.6 for ESS indictments in 2011.
   • Dui Hua estimates that Xinjiang accounted for 75% of ESS trials in 2012 and 86% of ESS trials in 2011.
   • In contextualizing the crackdown on ESS, China Law Yearbook said there had been an increase in violent terrorism and extremist events in recent years. It underscored the need to keep “high pressure” on ESS crimes and “resolutely fight the crimes of splittism, subversion, terrorism and all kinds of cult organizations in accordance with the law to maintain state security and social and political stability, consolidate the party’s ruling position, and defend the socialist regime.”

HONG KONG – POLITICS

1. Political reform consultation began

   1. On November 22, Basic Law Committee chairman Li Fei, who took over since March, visited Hong Kong and laid out the legal framework for political reform. Li outlined his position at a lunch with a group of Legco members (only two of them are pan-democrats) and business leaders. He echoed comments from other mainland officials that anyone antagonistic towards Beijing could not become chief executive. He did not mention the idea of allowing the public to nominate candidates for the 2017 election, but said the nominating committee stipulated in the Basic Law would have a similar make-up to election committees at previous polls. Pan-democrats criticized Li’s first words as “restrictive” and “careful”.
   2. Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, who heads the consultation process, said on Thursday morning that there is “much room” for the public to voice their opinion on upcoming electoral reform, but proposals must be within the constitutional framework of the Basic Law. Lam also said that the criteria of “patriotism” (爱国爱港) is something that goes with saying
   3. The consultation document released on Wednesday kicked off the five month consultation period. It has however no mention of “public nomination”; on the contrary it contains numerous legal interpretation from mainland officials, e.g. 沿用「四大界別」組成提名委員會、提委會要「機構提名」等。
   4. Netizens found out that the promotional video for political reform consultation uploaded to Youtube has disabled the comment function.
   5. SCMP: A major battlefield of the electoral reform debate is whether the laws only allow the nominating committee as a whole to pick chief executive candidates, and whether the committee formation has to follow the current election committee, which has been criticised by many as representing narrow interests.
   6. A survey conducted by Alliance for True Democracy found that over 60% of people support the idea of “public nomination”

PUBLICATIONS

1. Elderly AIDS activist Gao Yaojie profiled by Buzzfeed, just as Premier Li Keqiang ”stressed the need for scientific treatment and caring hearts in the fight against HIV/AIDS.”

   1. “Before she agreed to meet me at all, she set rules via email: There would be no discussion of China’s politics, the Communist Party’s future, or the myriad issues that concern other dissidents. These are inexorably tied to her own life, but Gao does not want to be known as a multipurpose Chinese dissident. A lifetime of looking over her shoulder for danger has left her wary. She never learned English.” — Kathleen McLaughlin