CHINA – POLITICS

Wang Lijun charged

1. 9/5: Wang Lijun charged with defection, abuse of power and bribe taking (徇私枉法、叛逃、滥用职权、受贿). In the indictment it was described that Wang “consciously neglected his duty and bent the law for personal gain”, referring to his attempt to cover up for Gu Kailai. The People’s Procuratorate of Chengdu said evidence against him is “concrete and abundant”.
2. 9/14: Reported that the trial for Wang will be held next Tuesday (9/18), citing a spokesperson for the Chengdu Intermediate People’s Court
3. WSJ: “the timing of the announcement was a surprise as it came on the same day that Hillary Clinton, the U.S. secretary of state, was in Beijing for talks with Chinese leaders”
4. NYT: Wang escaped the more serious crime of treason, which often results in death penalty.
   1. “Documents circulated internally in the spring regarding the case credited Mr. Wang for exposing Mr. Heywood’s murder. But there were no such positive points for Mr. Wang in the news report of the indictment. This indicated that the party’s assessment of the case had evolved as leaders negotiate ahead of the congress”

What does this mean for Bo Xilai?

1. NYT, citing Beijing political commentator Li Weidong, “If they say that Wang Lijun committed so many crimes and Bo Xilai did not commit any, no one will believe it. Over all, this means that the chances of Bo facing criminal prosecution are growing. He was Bo Xilai’s main aide, after all.”
2. Focus on the charge of Wang’s illegal use of technical reconnaissance measures, e.g. wiretapping:
   1. RFI: “此次王立军非法监听被列入起诉罪名之中，显而易见，王立军并无直接的动力与能力介入高层斗争，直接的问题就是，谁指示并安排王立军以监听手段介入北京高层机密。以此推断，薄熙来置身事外的可能性已经越来越小。”
   2. Cheng Li, Brookings Institute: “This is very bad news for Bo Xilai. Despite the fact that Gu’s case has been closed they can still try other people in relation to that.”
   3. Steve Tsang, Nottingham University professor: “Clearly it is aimed at Bo. If all they wanted was to hush it up and not do much, they would make it a matter of defection and not raise these other issues. Wang couldn’t have done all those things without his boss knowing – that’s blatantly obvious.”

Leadership transition

1. The missing Xi Jinping: reappeared on 9/15 attending event to mark national science day
   1. 9/1: Last known date of appearance
   2. 9/12: Cited by state media late on Wednesday night as expressing his condolences to the family of a veteran Communist Party official who passed away last week, Huang Rong.
   3. Precedent: “In 1993, the country’s premier was not seen for seven weeks. It is thought that Li Peng suffered a heart attack, although his absence was officially ascribed to a cold.”
2. Bao Tong’s (鲍彤) interview with Ming Pao:
   1. On Bo Xilai: “他（薄熙來）每一個DNA都是黨的基因，從無法無天開始，他就是黨性的化身。”
   2. 當前的內閣是「維穩內閣」，預算是「維穩預算」，「我們納稅的本質，是把錢交出來給上面的人壓制我們行使公民權，這是一個很大的悲劇」
3. Wang Yang making last-minute “play for seat”:
   1. Use frog-in-the-pot analogy to describe the necessity to push political reform
   2. Chen Ziming: Suggests Wang’s belief that some top positions remain in play, not absolutely certain that he will enter the PSC. Wants to score good points across the board.
4. Cheng Li, Brookings Institute: China’s economic hard-landing is intertwined with the current leadership crisis. “This legitimacy crisis is worse than in 1989, and may be the worst in the history of the Communist Party. People are afraid that it could lead to revolution if it is not handled well.” The worry is that the transition could go badly awry as 70pc of top cadres and the military are replaced, the biggest changeover since the party came to power in the late 1940s. “That is what is causing capital flight. All the top officials are trying to get their money out of the country”

Li Wangyang

1. Ming Pao journalist detained for 44 hours by local authorities; forced to conduct interview
   1. 《明報》記者日前到湖南邵陽，終於找到「被失蹤」的李旺玲及夫婿趙寶珠，趙不僅否認曾參與調查大舅的死因，更表示從未簽署官方的驗屍報告。
   2. 邵陽市宣傳辦負責人為記者安排「獨家錄影訪問」，又叮囑若能好好配合，「可解除誤會……也能早點回香港，否則可能要面對司法程序……甚至連人身安全也無法 保障。」趙寶珠及李旺陽生前友人雷德明、趙志華，其後被安排到酒店會議室接受港記「採訪」，官方則全程監視和錄影。這次訪問中，趙寶珠多次重複「過去的事 就不要再提了」，又稱曾簽署同意火化李旺陽。
2. Evidence for forged signature presented
3. Miriam Lau: Petition sent to Premier Wen Jiabao to call for re-investigation. Urged Beijing to protect the freedom of investigation of journalists

CHINA – ECONOMY

Stimulus

1. Launch of 1-trillion-yuan spending package on roads and infrastructure projects. The NDRC has approved 60 new projects: 发改委5日公布批复总投资规模逾7000亿元的25个城轨规划和项目后，6日又公布批复13个公路建设项目、10个市政类项目和7个港口、航道项目。
2. 宽带中国战略: 近几年，国际上许多国家先后推出宽带战略，希望通过宽带生态圈的发展，助经济走出低谷。
3. The Telegraph: “It is clear that the Politburo is sufficiently alarmed by mini-slump of recent months to put its reform drive on hold, opting instead for prime pumping to help the Communist Party through its handover of power later Autumn.”
4. Century Weekly: Local governments nationwide challenged by flagging economies and skimpy coffers; seeking to stimulate business and boost fiscal budgets but have limited options:
   1. “大干快上”: accumulate debt, leave it with next government or banks, expecting central bailouts. The most effective way to gain “political achievement”
   2. “招商引资”
   3. “产业结构转型”
5. Zhou Xiaochuan (周小川), head of the People’s Bank of China, due to retire; speculation regarding who will be his successors.
   1. SCMP: “Zhou as the key architect of embryonic mainland efforts to create a market-based interest-rate regime, move the yuan towards a free-floating exchange mechanism and turn it into an internationally used currency.”
   2. “His successor will step into the job as China struggles to break away from its traditional development mode and move onto a more sustainable track, with banking and finance reform likely to become more important.”

CHINA – SOCIETY

AIDS activism

1. Demonstration by 200 AIDS victim in Henan province in late August. Many participants were infected in government-backed blood-selling schemes in the 1990s. Donors were re-infused with pooled blood once plasma is removed – Tens of thousands contracted HIV in the process.
2. RFA: Around 40,000 have now died of AIDS, leaving around 60,000 still living with HIV.
3. Economist: Li Keqiang “has particular reason to prefer that Henan’s AIDS crisis is dealt with quietly.” Li was the province’s governor and then party chief from 1998-2004. He was widely blamed for covering up the calamity by suppressing protestors and silencing the media.
4. A matter of local malfeasance?
   1. Document 26, issued by the Ministry of Civil Affairs in 2009: HIV-infected children and orphans whose parents died of AIDS should be given a minimum monthly subsidy of 600 yuan.
   2. Cash-strapped local governments ignoring central directives; “procrastinating”
5. Activist: seven lawyers offered to represent victims on pro bono basis, microblogging services used to recruit more people to join the lawsuit.
6. Medical professor Gao Yaojie: “there are currently more than 10,000 blood-selling stations across China, in all regions of the country… only around 10 percent of HIV infections are transmitted through sex.”

Elderly care

1. SCMP Special report: By 2015 there will be 220 million people more than 60 years old in China, compared with 180 million today. Within 40 years, China will have nearly 500 million elderly people, about 1/3 of its future population of about 1.5 billion.
   1. 家庭结构呈现出典型的“421结构”：即4位老人、2位中年人和1个孩子。孩子长大后外出求学、就业，父母必然留守空巢。
   2. 在全国78亿老人中，城市空巢老人占49.7%，农村占38.3%。
2. Rise of the elderly home
   1. Need concentrated on the affordable range, which is subsidized by the state
   2. Necessity of foreign expertise: cooperation deals and consulting contracts signed with providers in the US, Japan, Europe.
3. Problem of cost: The extent of private sector participation

CHINA – DIPLOMACY

1. APEC summit: Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and Hu Jintao did not hold customary talk due to dispute; Noda and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak also “shunned each other” due to row over islands (Dokdo in South Korea; Takeshima in Japan). Hu’s speech at APEC delivered “without flair”
2. Japan “nationalized” Diaoyu islands:
   1. Condemnation from both China and Taiwan
   2. Large-scale protests in at least 85 Chinese cities; in Guangzhou and Shenzhen over 10,000 took to the street. SCMP reporter beaten up by public security officials.
   3. People’s Daily: “用文明法治凝聚爱国力量”: “祖国领土遭受挑衅，抑制不住的愤懑、抗议与“反制”，是中华儿女应有的激情，需要释放。这样的爱国情感弥足珍贵，需要充分珍惜保护。但是，文明守法应是公民的基本素质。损害同胞的合法财产，迁怒在华的日本公民，是极不妥当的。”
3. Reaction from Taiwan:
   1. Want China Times editorial: “we suggest Taiwan and China set up a pilot mechanism for mutual military trust in the South China Sea” “Given that Taiwan lacks the military strength to protect the Diaoyutai and Taiping islands, many strategists in Taiwan suggest the country set up a mutual military trust mechanism with China. However, due to pressure from the United States and the DPP, Ma has not taken any steps in this direction.”
   2. Tsai Ing-wen, DPP:
      1. “近來釣魚台主權爭端，不能排除是日、中為解決國內政經困局，轉而透過操作外部議題，化解內部矛盾。”
      2. “總統馬英九應有明確而堅定態度，不能讓台灣對釣魚台的主權，與中國的片面主張混為一談，造成國際社會誤解。”

• “政府放任中國，利用釣魚台事件，畫出釣魚台附近領海基線，已侵犯台灣領海海域，危及台灣安全，為什麼不見馬總統抗議？”

HONG KONG – POLITICS

 LegCo election

Geographical Constituency

Pan-democrats secured 18 out of 35 seats; received 56.12% of votes (3.67% lower than 2008):

• Democratic Party: 7 in 2008 down to 4
• Civic Party: 4 in 2008 up to 5, but incumbents Tanya Chan and Audrey Eu out
• The newly founded People Power and Labor Party each secured 3

Hong Kong Island (7): Pan-democrats received 55% of vote (5% lower than 2008) but took only 3 seats. Pro-establishment camp took 4 seats on receiving 45% of votes. Evidence of vote allocation mechanisms at work: Observe vote distribution between DAB candidates Christopher Chung and Jasper Tsang (Ming Pao table)

Kowloon East (5): Pan-democrats received 54% of vote and took 2 seats. Pro-establishment 44%, 3 seats. “Independent” Paul Tse (謝偉俊)(38,546) benefiting from competition within the pan-democratic camp: People Power Wong Yeung Tat (黃洋達)(36,608) vs. Andrew To (陶君行)(27,253).

District Council (second) Functional Constituency (5)

The vote distribution for Starry Lee and Lau Kong Wah according to districts clearly shows the vote allocation machine at work. (Ming Pao table)

Traditional Functional Constituency (30)

Pan-democratic camp secured 6 seats, up from 4 in 2008

Architectural, surveying and planning: seen as contest between Leung camp and Tang camp: Tony Tse (謝偉銓) vs. Patrick Lau, incumbent (劉秀成). Tse won by 61 votes.

Analysis

1. Overall: Pan-democrats needed 24 seats to block major legislative initiatives and won 27. However, in the geographical constituency their situation is significantly worse than in 2008: secured 18 out of 35 seats, compared with 19 out of 30 seats.
2. Rise of radicalism?
   1. Before the election, column by Jimmy Lai (黎智英) on Apple Daily accusing People Power of betraying the pan-democrats.
   2. Ming Pao editorial: “選舉後關鍵少數的內涵已經質變，激進民主派取代了溫和民主派的主導位置，這個變化，對於議會生態、政治生態以至民主進程會有深遠影響，對於香港整體大局是禍是福，難以預料；對未來4年立法會的政治生態，則難以樂觀。”
   3. SCMP, Frank Ching: “The two trends – the decline in support for democrats and the rise of radicalism – are related. The more radical the democrats become, the more moderate voters they will lose. And, as they lose moderate support, radicals will form an increasingly larger part of their base. This does not bode well for their future.”
   4. Counter-arguments in support of People Power
3. Defeat for Democratic Party: Albert Ho resigned
4. Chinese companies mobilized to garner support for pro-establishment candidates (Ming Pao)

Diffusion of tension by Hong Kong government

Multiple-entry tourist visas plan postponed indefinitely

1. The plan would allow Shenzheners with no local hukou to enter Hong Kong, benefiting an estimated 4 million residents. It was to begin on September 1 but was postponed for three weeks. Now shelved indefinitely.
2. Hong Kong Transition Project’s tracking of local attitudes: dissatisfaction with Beijing currently at highest since 1997 at 38%, down from 89% in 2008 when China hosted the Olympics.

Leung cancelled trip to APEC meeting in Russia:

Concession made over national education

1. Global Times: “The concession by the HKSAR government has appeased protesters. But we are surprised by the strong emotions and lack of rationality in Hong Kong society. On this issue, Hong Kong appears to be like Cairo one year ago, rather than a developed democratic society.” “The worries expressed by some Hong Kong residents are understandable. However, they need to be clear that the mainland has no intention of assimilating Hong Kong. Mainlanders are willing to see Hong Kong maintain its character. It is in the interests of all Chinese. But people from the mainland want to see Hong Kong society accept its return. They are quite uncomfortable with a few Hong Kong people’s nostalgia for its colonial past and sense of superiority against mainlanders.”
2. Keywords such as “national education” and “Leung Chun-ying” were banned in microblog searches. SCMP: Authorities were fearful of the impact of the campaign on the mainland.
3. Research report by HK Transition Project

New housing policy released

1. Announcement of pilot scheme in which homes will only be sold to Hong Kong permanent residents under the “Hong Kong property for Hong Kong residents” policy (港人港地).
2. Two sites at former Kai Tak airport selected for the building of ~1,100 flats: land leases will specify that flats can only be sold to buyers with permanent residency in Hong Kong for 30 years. Resale also confined to locals.
3. Albert Cheng: “no more than window dressing”, “only a drop in the ocean and will do little to satisfy demand or cool the market”, “another form of property hegemony”.
4. Ming Pao: Period of 30 years shows commitment of government, but speculation by Hong Kong investors difficult to prevent. Need to wait and evaluate effect. Also, mainlanders might still be able to purchase flats through local lawyers using investment trusts.

Others: Protest against cross-border traders at Sheung Shui station