CHINA – POLITICS

Chongqing development

1. 4/1: WSJ reported that Gu ordered Neil Heywood (NH) to divorce his Chinese wife and swear loyalty to the Bos, angered when NH refused.
2. 4/10: Announcement that Bo Xilai is stripped of his Communist Party posts; Gu and Zhang Xiaojun (loyal family staff of the Bos, previous bodyguard of Bo Yibo) “strongly suspected” of killing NH over dispute about “economic interests”.
3. 4/12: Boxun article citing unnamed source that Bo Xilai personally ordered murder of NH, that Bo was responsible for six deaths in Dalian and Chongqing, that Gu has transferred 8 billion yuan of asset abroad.
4. 4/12: Apple Daily reveals that Bo’s elder brother Bo Xiyong has served for nine years at Everbright Holdings under assumed name.
5. 4/13: Xinhua’s reference to Gu as Bo-Gulai raised speculation about nationality of Gu – whether she secretly holds dual citizenship as a “naked official”
6. 4/16: Reuter reported based on sources the fallout between Gu and NH: Gu asked NH to move large sum of money abroad, angered when he demanded a larger cut than expected and threatened to expose what Gu was doing. NH was Gu’s “soulmate”, citing source, “Her mentality was ‘you betrayed me, and so I’ll get my revenge’.”
7. 4/17: David Cameron met Li Changchun; Nick Clegg met Liu Yandong day before. Johnny Lau: Both parties playing along according to “script”.
8. 4/17: Zhou Yongkang attended Beijing forum reviewing work of grassroots-level judicial offices. HKEJ: demonstration of loyalty to Hu.
9. 4/19: HK Standard reported that Gu is dying from cancer.
10. 4/19: NYT and IHT reported the rounding up of officials in critical Communist Party and government posts in Chongqing who are considered loyalists of Bo; dismantling Bo’s network.
11. 4/19: WSJ reported investigation into Chongqing government spending, unclear yet whether it is a politically motivated attempt to attack Bo’s Chongqing model.

Wang Kang (王康): Source releasing plenty of information to the British media including Reuter and the Daily Mail. According to these media Wang is an entrepreneur and writer with close connection to Bo’s associates. Wang himself said in an interview with Deutsche Welle that he does not know the Bos but met Bo Yibo once twenty years ago. According to the VOA he calls himself a “minjian thinker” (民间思想家).

Those allegedly being detained in Beidaihe include:

– Xu Ming (徐明): Founder and chairman of Dalian Shide Group, detained on March 15 (same day Bo was sacked as Chongqing party chief) according to report by Economy and Nation Weekly.

– Xia Zeliang (夏澤良): Party chief of Chongqing Nan’an district

Mainland media

1. 人民日报 :自觉维护改革发展稳定的良好局面: “我们要深刻认识中央决定的重大意义，自觉与以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央保持一致，把思想和行动统一到中央精神上来，把注意力和精力集中到改革发展上来，在党中央的坚强领导下，进一步增强政治意识、大局意识、责任意识、法治意识，坚定不移地推动科学发展、促进社会和谐。”
2. 新京报：顺应民意的决定必将得到人民拥护：“即便在网上，对中央这一决定表示支持的声音也绝对是主流。一个重大决定的出台，能否得到民众的支持和拥护，衡量的标准就是看它是否依据事实尊重法治，是否符合主流民意，能否引领国家走向光明的未来。”
3. 北京日报：坚决拥护中央决定 全力做好首都工作
4. 重庆日报 : 3300万重庆人民衷心拥护党中央的正确决定
5. Global Times: Bo’s case shows resilience of rule of law
6. 4/16: 解放军报：自觉在大局下行动 (Zhan Jiang on SCMP: “The media campaign is especially targeted at the army because Bo has close connections to some senior military personnel”)
7. 4/19: 环球时报：不要把个人影响力估计过高
   1. “再大的个人影响和再高的职务，都不会对一位领导干部形成“豁免”级别的保护。极少数严重违纪的身居高位者，显然在这个关键问题上产生了错判或侥幸。
   2. “有人认为重庆的“唱红打黑”就是一种“路线斗争”方式。这是对地方具体做法与中央政策不同层面的混淆。中央有评价地方做法的绝对权威，中国任何地方政府都没有力量把当地做法上升为可与党的路线做博弈的所谓“路线”，“路线斗争”无从谈起。

Opinions and commentaries

1. 4/12, SCMP op-ed: Bo scandal likely to unite the Party. “If the past is any guide it will pass without serious harm to the solidarity of the leadership or the political legitimacy of the party. Rather, it will spur the leadership to unite and put aside personal differences – not only in their own interests but because Communist Party rule is at stake.”
2. 4/12, Ming Pao ed: Bo’s downfall demonstrates that absolute power leads to absolute corruption; political reform can no longer be delayed. Transparent handling of case may win China better national image.
3. 4/12, Ming Pao report: Based on interviews in Chongqing, “majority of citizens think Bo is a sacrifice of political struggle” and are disappointed in his removal. Similar report in HKEJ.
4. 4/12, Ming Pao, Li Xianzi: Beijing’s handling of the incident is notably in step with that of US and UK governments, showing tacit consensus between the three. Also proposed alternative version of Wang Lijun story: Wang investigated for corruption, Wang sought help from Bo, Bo wants severance to safeguard his political career, Wang used NH case to threaten Bo, Bo removed Wang from office, Wang took revenge by “escape” to US embassy.
5. 4/16, IHT News Analysis: Chinese elite now engaged in campaign to make Bo the poster child of corruption and crime, but it does little to prevent Party’s loss of legitimacy.

 CHINA – ECONOMY

Greater transparency in public expenditure

1. 2012/4/19: State Council regular meeting discussed full disclosure of Three Public Expenditures (“三公”经费) within two years. State Council called for disclosure of central sangong budget in May 2011, and began experiments in four cities.
2. Nanfang People Weekly:
   1. 300 billion yuan per year spent on eating and drinking on public budget (公款吃喝); total sangong expenditure estimated at 900 billion per year.
   2. Biggest public concern with disclosure: whether the figures are true. Prevalent problem of 做假账
3. Southern Weekly: Sichuan’s disclosure of sangong in March 2012.

CHINA – SOCIETY

Human rights activists

1. 2012/4/6: Fang Lizhi passed away
   1. The Economist obituary: “Fang Lizhi was the man who had encouraged the students to speak out: the first and, so far, only intellectual in Communist-ruled China whose dissent has spurred the young to challenge party rule.”
   2. Ming Pao: Sina Weibo censorship
   3. Global Times: 方励之追求与中国前进不合拍. Zaobao: 社评没有用官方的传统语气批判方励之，还承认“方励之曾是中国有名望的科学家”，这和当年官媒痛斥方励之是“卖国贼”相比，已不可同日而语，显示出官方在意识形态上更为包容的姿态。
2. 2012/4/6: Author and activist Yu Jie on National Security’s threat on his plan to write biography for Liu Xiaobo
3. 2012/4/11: Activist lawyer Ni Yulan sentenced to two years and eight months in jail on charges including fraud and inciting disturbance. She has offered legal advice to victims of land evictions and housing rights cases.

Taiwan: Urban Renewal Act (都市更新條例)(URA)

1. 2012/3/28: Taipei city government sent over 1000-man-strong riot police to drag away over 300 protestors demonstrating against the forceful eviction of the Wang family and the demolition of their property at Shilin district. The Wang family has lived in the property for 135 years across 6 generations, but were forced to relocate after the district’s renewal project gained the approval of 90% of the residents two years ago. The apartments were demolished; three human rights lawyers offering who have offered consulting services for the government resigned in protest.
2. Public attention drawn to URA:
   1. 11: Scope of the renewal zoning can be drawn by developer without noticing land owners affected.
   2. 22: Developers can obtain renewal permit if a certain proportion of the owners of private land or buildings in the area agree to renewal.
   3. 36: Developer can request government authorities to tear down buildings or evict tenants have not been removed within a stipulated period.
3. Apple Daily: Art 36 contravenes the Constitutions and the International Bill of Human Rights.
4. Taipei Times: Urban renewal system is flawed
   1. “Taiwan’s Urban Renewal Act is the product of neo-liberalism and privatization ideas. In systemic terms, the government on the one hand gives free rein to developers, while on the other hand uses its public authority to assist them.”
   2. “An ‘agreement ratio’ has been invented […] wrongfully legitimizing it by relying on the decision by a majority. This is in all likelihood unconstitutional.”
5. ISun Affairs: Past eight amendments of URA have moved towards convenience for developers, simplification of procedure and removing obstacles. Breakdown of constitutional system and human rights.
6. Taiwan Association for Human Rights: Urgent Appeal “Stop the Forced Evictions of the Urban Renewal Victim Families”: The case of the Wang family not an isolated incidence; there are 52 urban communities facing similar situations.
7. Taipei government: Will postpone demolition and eviction of 33 households that have refused to relocate; and will revise URA within six months “to bring it in line with social justice.”
8. Trend Magazine: “The Unclear Position of the DPP”
   1. Link public anger over URA to the silence and political weakness of the DPP: Attention to vote source analysis trumps clear party mandate (票源分析取代政党立场), slow reaction to what concerns society.
   2. Reaction to meeting between Hu Jintao and Wu Poh-hsiung, KMT honorary chairman (2012/3/22) and the proposal of “one country, two areas” (一国两区) also reveals DPP’s weakness:
      1. 吴伯雄：“我们现在在推行的两岸关系的依据是《两岸人民关系条例》，这是以‘一国两区’的概念作为法理的基础，我们处理两岸事务的部门是大陆委员会，不是‘外交部’，这就足以说明，两岸并非国与国的关系，而是特殊的关系。”
      2. The rhetoric of DPP anger is directed towards Ma Ying-jeou betraying Taiwan (卖台), but the substance of the attack was that any change in policy must pass through the 23 million people of Taiwan. DPP focused on procedural concerns but raised no rational objection to the content of the proposal (缺乏内容上的辨识和对抗，缺乏有力的理性回击).

CHINA – ENVIRONMENT

Rising fuel prices

1. 2012/3/20: The NDRC increased price per metric ton of gas and diesel by 600 yuan, a rise of 6-7%.
2. According to new mechanisms put in place by NDRC to regulate oil prices in May 2009, China’s prices are linked to Brent (UK), Cinta (Indonesia) and Dubai (UAE). Retail price per liter of 93 octane: 8.33 yuan in Beijing, 6.82 yuan in New York, 12.06 yuan in Tokyo, 14.39 yuan in London.

Alternative energy sources

1. Concern for energy security: Imported oil expected to account for 58% of China’s total supply in 2012, a 1.5% increase from 2011. Back in 2000, the figure was 30%. Natural gas import expected to increase from 20% of total supply in 2011 to over 30%. Increased reliance seen as threat to safety; overexposure to volatile price movements.
2. Recent measures:
   1. Electric or hybrid vehicles
      • 2012/3/13: Shenzhen to replace over 50% of its combustion engine buses with electric or hybrid ones by 2015. Every electric bus receives 1 million yuan subsidy, half from central government and half from Shenzhen’s.
      • 2012/3/19: State Council regular meeting discussed development plan for new energy automobile industries 《节能与新能源汽车产业发展规划（２０１２—２０２０年）》
   2. Shale gas exploration
      1. “Shale gas revolution” in the US intensely observed: see Southern Window’s interview with former head of National Energy Commission
      2. First auction of shale gas exploration rights in June 2011. China has the world’s largest technically recoverable shale gas resources.
      3. 2012/3/16 Shale Gas Development Plan (2011-2015) introduced by the NDRC, Ministry of Land and Resources and Ministry of Finance.

3. Skepticism expressed by Doug Young, associate professor at Fudan university: “Alternative energy projects newest white elephants”:
   1. “First, there was the solar panel and wind power craze that began about five years ago. Then there were electric and hybrid vehicles neither of which has produced companies that can turn a profit without strong government support, despite billions of dollars in investment. Now the latest fad has China’s energy majors snapping up assets with names like oil shale and oil sands”, whose exploration is “far more costly than traditional oil exploration.”
   2. Lack of key elements e.g. supporting infrastructure, long-term economics that don’t require government support, market demand. “Simply throwing money… won’t work.”
4. Caixin report: Huge waste of wind-generated electricity (approx. 10 billion kilowatt hours in 2011) due to disconnect between production facilities and grid companies. Grid companies have no economic incentive to build extra transmission lines to use electricity generated from wind; but power plants are racing each other to develop wind farms.

Environmental issues in China

1. Loss (both financial and health costs) from pollution estimated at 5-6% of China’s GDP, or 2.5 trillion yuan annually.
2. Wen Wei Po dedicated one page to environmental issues in China during the Annual Sessions (March 9, 2012): “Ten years of eliminating pollution with no obvious effect”, “Black GDP threatening China’s development”; need to increase civic awareness.
3. Sociology professor Li Dun, Tsinghua, on rural-urban divide:
   1. “It is an environmental and ecological deterioration that has occurred in the wake of the collapse of the state monopoly of grain and the people’s commune system which left in place the hukou system and its legacy of official separation between rural and urban areas. From this system sprung an unspoken yet not entirely unconscious arrangement: The countryside was where you could sweep under the rug all of the waste and heavy polluters from the shiny prosperous new cities.”
   2. Under the current land system no individual can take full responsibility for the land. It is the local government that has authority over the land and can rent it out. Yet the land does not really belong to the local government. It belongs to the nation, to the collective. […] Hence few people are willing to consider the long-term interests of the land and its surrounding environment and ecosystem. […] Given that villagers cannot truly exercise the rights over their land, it is difficult to expect them to exercise their right to protect the local environment. In law-based nations the words “not on my land!” echoed by villagers have been the best defence against rural environmental infringement, but in China’s current system such words have little power.”

Air pollution

1. Inclusion of PM2.5 in latest National Ambient Air Quality Standards; each provincial capital and municipality will begin monitoring PM2.5 in 2012. Testing work has begun in January 1, 2008, in nine key cities.
2. Regional efforts:
   2. Beijing: announced in February plan to reach the national standard of annual average PM2.5 concentrations of 35 micrograms per cubic meter by 2030 at the earliest. “There are four million more motor vehicles in Beijing now than in 1998, and exhaust pollution has grown ten times. Since then, Beijing’s area has grown and its population has increased from some 12 million people to more than 20 million.”
   3. The Pearl River Delta as the first urban conglomerate in China to adopt new standards. Air quality dropped by 10-30%.
   4. Hong Kong also started PM2.5 monitoring in early March under pressure from environmental groups. Air in Causeway Bay exceeds standard by 40%.
3. Southern Metropolis Weekly: Problem underlying air pollution is poor petrol quality. Sulphur content in mainland petrol is 15 times higher than that in Japan and Europe and five times higher than in HK.

Water pollution

1. Serious cases of pollution in the past: Jilin Petrochemical Plant explosion and pollution of Songhua River with benzene and nitrobenzene in November 2005; 1000-ton cadmium waste released in Beijiang River by smelting plant in Guangdong province in December 2005; toxic leaks from Zijin Mining in Fujian province; oil pipeline explosion in Dalian’s Xingang Harbor in July 2010; oil leak in Bohai Bay from platforms of ConocoPhilips China, subsidiary of US-based oil company in August 2011.
2. Heavy metal esp. lead poisoning: most recent case in September 2011 when over 100 children in Shanghai were reported to have excessive levels of lead in their blood. Two factories were shut down by the Shanghai Environmental Protection Bureau as a result. Occupational Knowledge International has compiled a list of mass lead poisoning incidents since 1987.
3. Jan-Feb 2012: Toxic cadmium spill in Longjiang River, affecting southern Guangxi province. Cadmium levels 80 times the legal limit; government delayed reporting by two weeks. Caixin: unmoving apology, no concrete action, “too little, too late”. 2007 study by Nanjing Agricultural University found that 10% of nation’s rice that year contained excessive cadmium levels.
4. Apr 2012: Report released by five Chinese NGOs, including Friends of Nature and the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPEA), accusing 46 Chinese and multinational clothing brands and retailers for buying from suppliers whose practices harm the environment. These include Zara, Nike, H&M, Levi’s, Adidas, Burberry, Marks & Spencer, Esprit, Calvin Klein, Armani, Carrefour, Walmart, etc.

Problems with the environmental regime

1. Low awareness of corporate responsibility; exploitative mentality
2. Southern Window: insufficient financial input: 3.4 trillion yuan to be invested in the environment according to the 12^th Five Year Plan, but almost half comes from corporation and local governments with the central government contributing only 1.5 trillion, or 300 billion annually. Local governments already lacking fund.
3. China Newsweek: “coalitions of interest” (利益集团) and “black interest chains” (黑色利益链) between environmental bureaus and polluting industries. In Hunan province, where heavy metal pollution is severe, more than four environmental bureau heads were relieved of duties on corruption charges. The only solution is greater civil society monitoring.
   1. Related to this: Southern Window report on the strengthening of anti-nuclear power movements on the mainland after Fukushima.