CHINA – SOCIETY

Press freedom

1. Yao Chen tweeting the words of Alexander Solzhenitsyn on her weibo in support of Nanfang Zhoumo. She has 31 million followers.
2. Outspoken blogger (6.6 million followers) and former investigative journalist, Li Chengpeng, attacked by authorities due to the attention he is drawing with his new book, Everybody in the World Knows. Time Magazine: “At an event in Beijing on Sunday, a man who identified himself as a Maoist tossed a wrapped kitchen knife at Li. (The weapon missed its target.) Li was also punched by another man who reportedly considered his book an attack on China itself.” In Shenzhen, “mysterious men snapped his photo, while others yelled, “Down with traitor Li Chengpeng.” His luggage, full of important documents, had gone missing.”
3. 王晓渔: 社会运动正在穿越转型三峡
   1. 最重要的是，此次社会运动不再限于利益相关者，也越出了知识阶层，企业家和艺人都加入了声援。根据各国的转型经验，社会运动的先声，常常由律师、记者、学 者等发出，但如果只有这些阶层参与，是远远不够的，说明社会运动仍然处于筚路蓝缕的初始阶段。等到企业家和艺人开始发声，就可以断言一个时代的风潮即将或 者正在发生变化，社会运动的兴起已经不可阻止。
   2. 艺人介入社会运动，往往比较滞后。除了摇滚歌手等少数群体，绝大多数艺人的去政治化程度比较高，感受到权利被剥夺的程度比较弱。但是，此次艺人的介入开始 呈现出连锁反应。当伊能静发声之后被消声，李冰冰立即接力；当姚晨用索尔仁尼琴的“一句真话能比整个世界的分量还重”曲折表达声援，陈坤直接表示支持＂南方系众友人＂
   3. 企业家和艺人的介入，将进一步使得依靠恐吓维持稳定的方式失效。因为恐吓唤起的不再是恐惧，而是变相的动员，唤起更多的人加入。当企业家和艺人也要被“喝茶”，当“喝茶”像家常便饭一样常见，恐吓就会变得可笑。

Anti-media Monopoly Movement in Taiwan (反媒體壟斷運動)

1. Target of movement: Want Want China Times Media Group 旺旺中時媒體集團
   1. Formed in 2008 following the acquisition of the China Times Group (which published the China Times and other print and electronic titles) by Want Want conglomerate, which started out in the 1960s making rice crackers.
   2. After acquisition, editorial line of China Times skewed towards support for Chinese state corporatism: speaks of Taiwan and PRC as “a single, albeit geographically divided, entity of corporate activity”. Validates the PRC and rhetoric of national economic development; supports KMT government in aligning policies with those of mainland.
2. Summer 2012: Proposal by Want Want to buy out China Network Systems (CNS), the second largest cable TV provider in Taiwan. In July 2012, the National Communications Commission (NCC) approved the CNS take-over, “but with significant caveats that placed limits on Want Want China Times’s presence in the cable TV news market by restricting the amount of news programming it would be allowed to broadcast.”
   1. September 1 protest (反媒體壟斷901大遊行), under the banner of the Anti-Media Monster Youth Alliance (反媒體巨獸青年聯盟) in association with the Association of Taiwan Journalists (台灣新聞記者協會). Some of the key student organizers were members of Student Rights Team (大學學生權利調查評鑑小組), a group that aims to raise awareness of restrictions on free speech and student activism within the university system.
3. October 2012: Jimmy Lai divesting himself of his Taiwanese media business, Next Media, which includes Taiwan edition of Apple Daily and Next TV. A consortium of Taiwanese investors, including Tsai Shao-chung (current CEO of Want Want), offered US$600m for Next Media.
   1. Index On Censorship: “If Tsai successfully acquires now a 32 per cent share of the Next Media’s daily newspaper and magazine businesses, together with the two newspapers and several magazines he already controls, his media kingdom will expand to dominate almost 50 per cent of Taiwan’s print market.”
   2. Online campaign: 反對媒體壟斷、拒絕中國黑手、捍衛新聞自由、我在___守護台灣
   3. Ministry of Education sending notices to universities asking them to deepen their understanding and concern for students involved in protests, including a list of names of student activists: recall martial law period
   4. The deal went through on November 28: To five Taiwanese individuals who are investing in their personal capacity, most with strong business ties with China, including Tsai.
4. Anti-media monopoly bill:
   1. January 12: KMT blocked the anti-monopoly media law proposed by the opposition party DPP. Motion was defeated 59 to 44 by members of the KMT caucus, which holds 64 of Legislature’s 113 seats. NCC spokesperson:
      1. DPP-initiated bill was ill-conceived and if passed, would have difficulties being put into practice.
      2. Proposed ban on financial companies investing in broadcasting and television companies  would limit broadcasting and television companies’ chances of getting new investment

• Proposed retroactive application  financial companies which are already running television companies will have to withdraw their investment with unpredictable impacts on the market

1. Proposed bill forbids any investor having stakes of more than 10 percent in both satellite television and cable television companies

1. Aftermaths:
   1. Protests organized by DPP: “Fury Mass Rally”
   2. January 23: DPP officials announced that they would establish a task force on media monopolization and submit own version of draft law to rival a proposal by the NCC. The party vowed to “stand on the same side as the academics, social groups and students who oppose media monopolization”.

Labor protests

Foxxconn protests in Jiangxi, Beijing this month: lack of year-end bonuses, no wage increase. These follow previous Foxxconn protests in Shaanxi Taiyuan (September 2012) and Henan Zhengzhou (October 2012)

About 1,000 workers at Shanghai Shinmei Electric Company held the 10 Japanese nationals and eight Chinese managers inside a factory for day and a half: Demanded the scrapping of the ridiculously strict requirements stipulating that workers only have two minutes to go to the toilet and workers will be fined 50 yuan if they are late once and fired if they are late twice.

Protests against Walmart:

1. Case 1: 2011年7月18日，李宛接到沃尔玛的开除通知书，称其以腰扭伤为由请全薪病假，却于病假期间参加劳工维权培训，违背公司诚信原则，造成公司实际经济损失。在那次5天的病假期间，李宛参加了由香港大学中国法律研究中心举办的劳动法知识培训。沃尔玛发现主办方贴在网上的活动照片，将照片传至各个分店进行人员辨认。
   1. 李宛： 沃尔玛担心我在工人里传播维权的‘坏’思想，这才是开除我的真正原因。
   2. 法院最终判决： 沃尔玛以李宛病假假期间前往香港参加培训活动为由与其解除劳动合同过于严苛，属于违法解除
2. Unionization: 沃尔玛在全球无工会的惯例，沃尔玛在中国一度反对成立工会。但事情在2006年出现转机，沃尔玛泉州店首先取得突破，分店工会宣告成立，后来在全国总工会的努力下，几乎全国的沃尔玛分店都成立了工会，很多分店甚至进行了工会委员直选。
   1. 沃尔玛工人： 除了最早一届工会成员直选之外，后来工会的管理人员便基本上由分店经理、副经理或人力资源主管担任。
   2. 很多情况下，企业工会不但没有起到正面作用，而且还帮企业的解雇行为披上‘合法外衣’
3. The law in labor disputes: 广东劳维律师事务所： 由律师段毅于2005年设立，所章程里写明：“只代表劳动者，不代表用人单位”. 在过去七年时间里，劳维所代理了近3000个劳动案件，有人数成百上千的大规模劳资纠纷
4. Case 2: Wang Shishu, Walmart Shenzhen employee, who has been agitating since summer 2012 for better pay, benefits and working conditions. He was fired, and launched protests by putting slogans outside the store: “Protest Against WalMart for Illegal Dismissal,” “Support for Reasonable and Just Demands of Workers” etc.
   1. Has support for Hong Kong-based labor advocacy group SACOM, which has also been active on behalf of workers at Apple’s Chinese suppliers.
5. Earlier: July 2012 crackdown in Shenzhen on at least 7 NGOs that advocate for the rights of migrant workers. Evicted from officers after their landlords were pressured by local officials, allegedly to prevent outbreak of social unrest organized by migrant workers before the 18^th Party Congress.

CHINA – POLITICS

1. Jiang Zemin signaled his stepping down at mourning for Yang Baibing
   1. As recently as late November, Jiang was placed third in rank in mourning announcement, behind Hu and Xi
   2. In Yang’s funeral, Jiang was placed last among a dozen party luminaries
   3. NYT: “He may finally curb any impulses to exert influence in Zhongnanhai”
   4. Joseph Fewsmith: “Having helped put in place the leadership that he wanted, it seems likely that he will now seek a lower profile.”
2. Two lawyers hired to represent Bo Xilai: Li Guifang and Wang Zhaofeng, both partners at the Deheng Law Offices in Beijing. According to the lawyers’ secretaries, the appointments were made with the agreement of members of Bo’s family “during the last one or two months”. Li Xiaolin, who represented Gu Kailai, was invited by Bo Guagua to represent Bo but he was “not allowed” to do so because Bo did not agree to the appointment.

Anti-corruption campaign

1. Xin Jinping’s speech at the meeting of Central Commission for Discipline Inspection: fighting both tigers (powerful leaders) and flies (lowly bureaucrats); containing power within cage of regulations
2. SCMP: Wang Qishan and the Tocqueville dilemma
3. Caixin feature report on anti-corruption campaign:
   1. Corruption most severe in particular sectors
   2. Phenomenon of “corruption succession” (前腐后继)
   3. Phenomenon of “linked corruption” (窝案)
4. Thousands of CCP officials panicked into fire sale of their illicit properties; billions of pounds smuggled overseas. Central Commission for Discipline Inspection report:
   1. “A wave of luxury home sales began last November and has accelerated since December”. Volume of deal intensified a hundred times after Xi Jinping warned about corruption and placed Wang Qishan in charge.
   2. 1,100 government officials had fled China during last year’s national holidays in October and that 714 had been successful in getting away
5. Changes in overseas market:
   1. US: properties worth more than $US7 billion had been bought by Chinese in the US last year. Some high-end homes were now built for rich Chinese, “with ponds for koi carp and a second kitchen for pungent cooking”.
6. Public security bureau: Move to protect personal information: attempt to hide information?
   1. 公安部於上周開始全國打擊侵害個人信息行動，民間反貪人士和學者直指，行動意在遏抑民間網絡反貪，隱藏官員信息： 公安部14日起在全國21省市統一行動，打擊「非法提供和獲取公民個人信息」犯罪，拘捕疑犯1152名，搗毀集團346個。
   2. 住建部在構建全國聯網的個人住房信息系統時，更承諾需地方領導多人同時按掣，才能查到公民住房信息，外界不得查詢：「只有市委書記、市長和住建部門負責人都同意，同時輸入，才能把某一個人的住房信息調出來」
   3. 中國人民大學政治系教授張鳴： 「實際上就是不想讓人知道，一公開就會出事」

Related developments in Hong Kong:

1. Ming Pao:
   1. 港府修订《公司条例》，变相限制公众查阅公司董事的住址和身分证号码
   2. 修例令业界将难以追讨奸商拖数和欠债；代表几十万打工仔的三大工会，均指修订等于协助无良老板隐藏身分，阻止打工仔追讨欠薪。
2. ISun Affairs:
   1. 新《公司条例》限制公众查阅公司董事数据，在信息开放方面开倒车
   2. 不但影响日常商业运作、助长洗黑钱活动，更屏蔽公众知情权，无疑向官商非法活动大开方便之门，严重损害香港国际金融中心地位。
3. Opposition:
   银行公会、大律师公会、会计师公会在年前的公众咨询中，均反对限查董事的资料，不过近日银行公会和会计师公会的主事人口风有所软化，但两公会均未正式改变立场。此外，香港三大工会工联会、职工盟、街工均明确要求政府收回这部分修订。

Bureaucratic reforms

1. China expected to launch its largest administrative reform since 1998: In 1998, the number of ministries went from 70 to 44. In March, the 44 ministries are expected to cut in half with portfolios redistributed.
2. Significance:
   1. “A further step away from China’s legacy of Leninist state administration”
   2. A new phase of political restructuring, “could potentially resolve the long power struggle in China”
3. Potential arrangements:
   1. Ministry of Railways, which has managed to avoid incorporation into the Ministry of Transport for 15 years, will be abolished
   2. Ministries of Civil Affairs, Labor and Social Security, and perhaps even of Health will be merged together
   3. Ministry of the Environment is expected to expand its powers
   4. The Academy of Sciences and Academy of Social Sciences are likely to merge
   5. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): currently akin to a super Ministry of Economy and Industry; could disappear then reappear as a commission for reform, with tasks including administrative restructuring of the state
   6. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC): now a kind of technical body under the supervision of a deputy prime minister; should be promoted in rank and earning power
   7. The bloated state-owned enterprises (SOEs): will face more pressure to focus on their core businesses. This should create more opportunities for private companies
4. Likely to face resistance, creating “an army of malcontents”:
   1. Back in 1998, reform was launched with greater ease:
      1. The Asian financial crisis put Beijing in danger of collapse
      2. Jiang firmly in power, previous management team out of picture with Deng Xiaoping’s death in 1997
   2. Today, SOEs are full of money and closing off the market; ministries have no clear boundaries. The reforms will also be taking place during the power transfer: need Hu and Xi to work together.

CHINA – ECONOMY

Social security reform

1. Dual track system (双轨制) being put in place since 1990s: 改革开放初期，企业职工和机关事业单位从业人员的退休金水平曾在同一个起跑线上。1991年后，随着企业基本养老保险制度改革启动，退休金计发方式的不同，使企业和机关事业单位两套退休制度之间出现越来越大的差异：“如果同一年参加工作的两个人，一个进了事业单位，另一个进了企业单位，他们的退休工资基本相差50%。”
   1. 企业职工的“养老”被推向“社会”
   2. 机关事业单位人员的退休金，则仍由财政，也就是纳税人埋单，他们不用交一分钱
2. Criticisms: Injustice
   1. Segregation: 把人区分为权力群体、权力亲缘群体和非权力亲缘群体
   2. 这样的制度设计，从一开始就预设了权力群体是特殊人群，在养老制度改革中有豁免权，纳税人要对他们兜到底。
   3. 原有的社保，尤其是养老制度、医疗制度，恰恰不是以“公民”身份，而是以“职业”身份来设计；强者优先，而非弱者优先。它建立了一个错误的逻辑原点：对于 权力群体和与权力沾边的群体，国家出钱来保，类似于“特供”；而对于非权力群体，国家出强制力，出管理机构，让他们和他们的雇主交钱来保自己。
3. Current challenge: Joining the two tracks (并轨)

See these links for more on social security/pension reform in China

CHINA – ENVIRONMENT

New Yorker: “The smog this weekend passed another threshold I hadn’t seen before: a test we might call “the local tolerance.” For years, Chinese people called their smog “fog,” a subtle way of saying, in effect, Western countries were polluted on their way up, too, so give us a break. Not anymore. The Chinese press was full of stories about smog this weekend, including a reminder of the hideous fact that high levels of particulate matter caused a combined eight thousand five hundred and seventy-two premature deaths in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Xi’an last year.”

1. Beijing’s levels of PM 2.5 exceeded US standards by more than 70 times. On Tuesday, acting mayor Wang Anshun pledged to take 180,000 polluting vehicles off the roads and replace coal-burning boilers in some Beijing homes, in the bid to draw down major air pollutants by 2% this year.
2. Stiff resistance from sprawling state-owned corporations and local interests: WSJ:
   “Handling China’s state-owned companies big and small will be a challenge to any effort by the new Chinese leader Xi Jinping to reform the economy. While they compete for capital and resources with the private sector, they are also major employers and often function as an instrument of Beijing’s policy goals, giving them tremendous political sway”
3. Steel industry:
   3. Steel production has grown steadily in recent years and rose 3.1% in 2012, as the Chinese government invested heavily in roads, railways and other infrastructure
   4. Unlike power sector, steel industry is fragmented and harder to control, with local governments relying on smaller, dirtier mills
4. The politically powerful old refiners:
   1. Heavily regulated fuel prices have discouraged Chinese refiners from producing cleaner diesel, as higher costs cannot be passed onto consumers
   2. Finance Ministry and Chinese refiners currently deadlocked in negotiations over subsidies to offset higher costs of upgrading refineries

HONG KONG – POLITICS

Policy address

Housing and land development

1. Short to medium term policies:
   2020. Amount of land designated for housing will grow to 300 hectares, providing 128,700 flats by 2020.
   2021. Supply of public flats will rise from 15,000 units a year to 20,000 in 2018.
2. Lifting 40-year moratorium on the sale of new land/modification of leases in Pok Fu Lam and Mid-Levels
   1. Criticisms: Benefit developers 讓地產商收購重建豪宅的機會大增
   2. Lai Kwong-tak, Professional Commons: Will speed up redevelopment of old buildings; adding taller buildings on the hills will degrade environment and pose bigger landslide risks. Don’t see how releasing land in luxury neighborhood would help address urgent housing problem of the grass roots.
3. Construction of several artificial islands in the waters between HK Island and Lantau, with a total area of 1400-2400 hectares
   1. Criticisms: Local residents, environmental groups, etc.
4. Inviting private developers to provide public housing in former quarry sites: 前鑽石山大磡村寮屋區、前茶果嶺高嶺土礦場、前南丫島石礦場，及安達臣道石礦場，四個屬政府土地的發展項目。Criticism: Benefiting developers
5. Scrapping previous administration’s plan to maintain the closed border area as a green buffer between HK and Shenzhen.
6. Another controversial issue: Importing foreign labor to do construction work, to help meet demand for labor in the building of public and subsidized homes
   1. Opposition from unionist lawmakers: immigrant labor would reduce wages for locals
7. Critics:
   1. Albert Cheng: “As a self-proclaimed housing expert, his housing plans are abysmal.” “In substance his housing policy is no different from that of Tsang.”
   2. Lau Nai-keung: Total number of new flats will be at least 142,000 in next five years, an impressive 15% increase from the past five years (124,000).
   3. Nicholas Brooke, property expert: No quick fix; Leung constrained by legacy of Tsang administration which did little to address serious shortfall in land supply.

Financial Services Development Council (金融發展局)

1. Chaired by Executive Council member Laura Cha Shih May-lung, former deputy chairwoman of the Securities and Futures Commission, the council was set up to promote the local financial industry: “conduct research, collect views from the industry, promote the city’s yuan services overseas and try to attract foreign firms to list here”
2. Mainland heavyweights:
   1. Son of former premier Zhu Rongji: Levin Zhu, chief executive of China International Capital Corp (CICC), China’s No 1 investment bank (朱雲來)
   2. Chen Shuang, chief executive of China Everbright (陳爽)
   3. Qin Xiao, former chairman of China Merchants Group (秦曉)
   4. Tse Yung-hoi, Deputy chief executive of Bank of China International (謝湧海)
3. Criticism:
   1. “Mainlandization”
      1. House News: 金融發展局其實是由香港中國金融協會倡議成立的，這個協會內有不少根正苗紅的高幹子弟、國企高層，梁振英與該會一直過從甚密，在參選特首前，已是協會顧問兼金主，梁公布參選後，第一場競選演說便是在該會舉行。這個協會的前身，更是由國務院前總理朱鎔基的女兒朱燕來創辦，現任主席陳爽則是光大控股執董兼行政總裁。
      2. 中資在本地金融業，早已無孔不入，為公為私，都極需要有一個可以影響政策的平台。
   2. 涂謹申: 金發局主席史美倫形容金融發展局為民間機構，可收取外界贊助，這樣很容易令金發局變成貪污溫脇，大金融機構若想影響香港金融業發展，便會捐錢贊助金發局的活動，例如提供頭等機票，香港廉潔核心價值將被破壞，他主張把金發局人員列為防賄條例附表適用的公職人員，加強防貪監察
      1. Ming Pao: 倫敦TheCityUK的經費來自政府及會費，無論是澳洲的Financial Centre Taskforce，還是新加坡的Financial Sector Development Fund，都是由政府提供經費
   3. Ming Pao editorial:
      1. 從本港金融和經濟發展現况，他們的加入，實際上反映現實和發展的需要；另外，這兩個機構按港法辦事，特別是金發局要按國際認同的規矩運作，相對於發展較落 後的內地金融業，中資要員浸淫其間，耳濡目染之下，對促進內地金融業的完善和發展，或許會起到積極作用。從這個角度看來，在新的歷史條件下，香港的示範單 位作用，正在透過其他平台和形式表現出來… 若因為有中資機構要員而全盤否定金發局，是背離理性認知的偏失
      2. 中資機構和內地人士淡入經濟、金融事務諮詢組織，是大勢所趨，不過，與當年英資淡出不同，中資淡入，華資毋須、也不會淡出，問題只是中資與華資如何相處共存而已
      3. Recommendations: 如何確保金發局成員保密，不會出現以權謀私情况，如何監管避免出現弊端，政府必須向公衆交代，否則政府難免被質疑「製造」了一批特權分子，讓他們有空間假為香港金融服務業謀發展之名而謀利

Other key points

1. Set up committee on standard working hours
2. Commission on Poverty to set a poverty line this year
3. HK$10 billion in subsidies to get polluting commercial vehicles off the road