CHINA – POLITICS
Wukan: model village sets up a new model for future protests
Villagers of Wukan, a village in Lufeng city, Guangdong province, a model village for years, peacefully ended three months’ protests over land disputes after senior provincial government officials made concessions on December 20th. The peacefully resolution of the protests is seen as a “win-win” ending for both the government and the villagers, which is a rare case among tens of thousands of mass incidents in China every year. Some say the resolution of the Wukan land disputes set up a “Wukan model”.
The protest started on September 21st after the village officials sold land to real estate developers without compensating villagers properly. The villagers demanded the government to announce the village’s financial records, investigate the village’s land trading since the late 1970s and the village committee election in Feburary. On September 29th, the village held a democratic election and a temporary committee of 13 representatives was selected. At this stage, the Lufeng government promised to investigate the problems the villagers raised. In November, some 400 villagers again petitioned in front of Lufeng municipal government. On December 9th, Shanwei officials (Lufeng is a county-level city under Shanwei) held a press conference, promising the villagers their demands were all acknowledged, but at the same time arrested 5 village representatives. Two days after, one of the detainees Xue Jinbo was reported dead. Though the family members insisted on seeing signs of torture on Xue’s body, the authorities said he died of cardiac arrest but refused to return his body.
Upon the news of Xue’s death, villagers stormed the local police station and clashed with the police. Party officials and police were forced to flee. Villagers held daily protest meetings since December 12th. A thousand police laid siege to the village on December 14th, preventing food and goods from entering the village. A breakthrough occurred on December 20th when senior provincial officials intervened by acknowledging the villagers’ demands, saying some village officials made mistakes and villagers appeals were mishandled previously. On December 21st, an agreement was made between the village and the government. On December 22nd, Zhu Mingguo, Guangdong province deputy secretary visited Wukan and was welcomed by the villagers.
Some neighbouring areas were also reported holding protests after people in Wukan stood up. More than a thousand of villagers of neighboring Longtou village protested against a land seizure on September 23rd. Residents of Haimen, a neighbouring town of Wukan, went on strike on December 20th, asking the authorities to relocate a planned coal-fired plant, which they say is damaging their health. About 30,000 attended the gathering, a few hundreds of them went to block the highway out of town.
Chang Ping, a veteran media worker and current affairs commentator said Wukan protests set many records: they were under democratic self-governance for three month without the government’s administration, the authorities were forced to recognise the legacy of the self-elected temporary committee by the end. As Chen Ping, the publisher of ISun Affairs magazine, puts it, the most valuable contribution is that the Chinese farmers for the first time showed citizenship awareness and practiced modern democratic self-governance.
On December 27th, a week after the Guangdong government made concessions over the land and the death of Xue Jinbo, Premier Wen Jiabao said China must give its farmers a much bigger share of profits from farmland seized in the name of economic growth.
Yu Jianrong, a CASS scholar, said in 2010 that land disputes is the cause for 65% of the mass incidents in China’s rural area.
According to the New York Times, there were180,000 mass incidents in China last year, while government figures from the mid-1990s put the number of such episodes at fewer than 10,000.
Some worry the series of protests may jeopardise Wang Yang’s chances joining the party’s top decision-making body next year, but analysts say the peaceful settlement could actually score him some points. People’s Dailypublished an editorial on December 22nd, lauding the agreement the local government made with the villagers, which peacefully ended the two weeks conflicts. Former CASS researcher Zhang Lifan told the South China Morning Post that ‘the Wukan model’ was a landmark for the resolution of the mainland’s ubiquitous land disputes. Wang “made a wise choice – his choice of non-confrontational, peaceful negotiations was a good move for his career,” Zhang said.
China welcomes 2012 with a series of strikes
On January 1st, thousands of residents of Anyang city, Henan gathered at a train station to protest over investment scams. It’s said that more than 40 local companies were being investigated over illegal investment schemes, which may have 20 to 40 bln yuan involved. 21 people were reported arrested by the police.
On January 4th, in Chendu, Sichuan, thousands of workers of Chengdu Steel Co. walked off the job to protest low wages. Workers confronted more than a thousand of police for a couple of hours and were reported beaten and dispersed.
The steel workers in Chengdu were encouraged by workers of the city’s Sichuan Chemical Company Ltd., who went on strike on December 30th for a pay rise and year end bonus. Their strike ended happily with each worker promised of a 400 yuan pay rise and a year end bonus of 3000 yuan.
Two dissidents are given long sentences for essays
Veteran activist Chen Wei was sentenced to 9 years in jail for subversion in Sichuan, three days later on December 26th, another veteran activist, Chen Xi, was sentenced to 10 years for the same crime.
Also in December, the authorities announced that rights lawyer Gao Zhisheng would have to spend an additional three years in prison for violating the terms of his probation.
“The government seems to be going in only one direction, which is more control and harsher punishment against political dissidents,” Nicholas Bequelin, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch, told the New York Times. “This is a reflection of the broader atmosphere in China, which is more conservative and hard-line.”
American movie star Christian Bale who starred in Zhang Yimou’s latest movie “The Flowers of War” went to visit blind rights lawyer Chen Guangcheng under house arrest in Linyi with a CNN crew, he was recorded punched by the security guards outside of Chen’s house and couldn’t break through. The CNN video again caused international concern about Chen’s situation, though there are no signs this is improving.
Hu on culture
President Hu Jintao published an article on Qiushi on January 1st, stressing the importance of the cultural construction to the country. He also warned that the west is trying to divide China by using ideology and culture.
Many countries are attempting to expand their influence through cultural means and China must deepen and promote its own values of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
A Central Committee meeting held in October and announced to deepen cultural reforms, since then, culture has become the top priority on the party officials’ agenda. And so far, the party has carried out some “reform” policies: to limit “excessive entertainment” on TV, to control the rapid growing Twitter-like microblog service and to ban more movies.
To limit excessive entertainment, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT) has cut nearly 70% of entertainment shows from prime time. Broadcasters are allowed to air only two entertainment shows a week, with a maximum of 90 minutes of entertainment daily between 7:30 and 10 pm.
To regulate the microblog service, the government issued new regulations requiring users to register with their real names. Beijing introduced the new regulations first on December 16th, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shanghai were also reported followed.
A new draft law governing the film industry added three content restrictions to the original list of 10. Under the new regulation, movies featuring religious fanaticism, gambling, drug abuse and even horror would be banned.
CHINA – DIPLOMACY
Kim Jong Il dies aged 69
Kim Jong Il was reported died of heart attack on a train on December 17th.
Beijing was reportedly told of Kim’s death on the same day, signalling its importance to Pyongyang, analysts say. President Hu Jintao went to the Embassy of the DPRK in Beijing on December 20th to express his condolences on the passing of Kim. China expects to make joint efforts with the comrades of the DPRK to effectively consolidate, construct and develop the traditionally friendly relations with the DPRK, Hu said. Comrade Kim Jong Il was an intimate friend of the Chinese people and the Chinese people will remember him forever. The condolence message the Chinese government sent to Pyongyang says China and the DPRK “stand together in good or bad times. The CPC and the Chinese government have always adhered to the policy of continuously consolidating and developing traditional friendship with the DPRK. We firmly believe that the traditional party-to-party, state-to-state and people-to-people friendship between the two countries will be carried on and further developed with the joint efforts of both sides. The Chinese people will always stand side by side with the DPRK people!” On December 31st, Hu again expressed support for Kim’s successor Kim Jong Un by sending congratulations on Kim Jong Un’s appointment as supreme military leader.
Kim’s death raised concerns of the stability of the Korean Peninsula. The Asahi Shimbun said in an editorial N Korea is making huge efforts to emphasise Kim Jong Un’s legitimacy, which shows the anxiety among the top officials about the fact that Kim had to take the top leadership only after a short period of preparation, also that Kim doesn’t have any experience of ruling a country. Professor Cai Jian (蔡健) with Shanghai’s Fudan University also expressed the same concern to VOA, that there are still risks that the transition period might be fraught.
South Korea’s foreign ministry said its top priority in 2012 is stability of the Korean peninsula. Apart from Kim’s death, the leadership changes in the U.S., Russia and China in 2012 will add more uncertainty on the peninsula. S Korea’s president Lee Myung Bak is going to meet Chinese president Hu Jintao for a summit on January 9th. It’s reported that Hu and Lee will exchange views on peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula after the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. N Korea has stated that it won’t deal with the Lee Myung-bak government. Analysts say Pyongyang’s growing economic dependence on Beijing will make it even more difficult for Seoul to handle inter-Korean relations.
The Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda visited China on December 25th and 26th, a trip originally aimed at improving bilateral ties, but ended up focusing on the Korean Peninsula issues.
The US recently resumed bilateral talks with Pyongyang on its nuclear programme and is reported to have agreed new food aid in return for suspension of uranium enrichment, according to an FT editorial. It said such talks shouldn’t stop, N Korea should be encouraged to stay at the negotiating table. The FT urged the international society to prepare a joint contingency plan in case the regime collapses. China once refused Washington’s efforts to do so, but the newspaper warned that “instability in a nuclear-armed country is in no one’s interests. The nightmare scenario is not the collapse of the Kim dynasty, but a clash of US and Chinese troops as they rush across the border to secure the country’s nuclear facilities. It should be everyone’s priority to avoid such an outcome.”
While according to China Daily, the death of Kim will have limited impact on the bilateral relations with China and regional stability. The arrangements regarding the transfer of power prior to Kim’s death made “the future path of DPRK politics fairly clear”, said Liu Jiangyong, vice-dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, and it is time for Washington and Seoul to improve relations with Pyongyang.
According to VOA, the sobbing crowds in N. Korean became one of the top topics on Weibo. Some Weibo users said the scene reminded them of the time when chairman Mao died in 1976, a time when Mao was still regarded as the holy red sun of China. Chinese people by then believed it would be the end of the world, but “the sun still rises! Don’t know if the people in N. Korea will have some good luck.”
Japanese Prime Minister visits Beijing
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda paid a two-day visit to Beijing in late December. Mr. Noda and his Chinese counterparts exchanged views on Korean Peninsula issues after Kim’s death, but it’s reported that the original theme of the meeting was to improve bilateral ties.
It will be the 40th anniversary next year of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Japan and China. It’s also reported that Japan said it may make a symbolic purchase of $10 billion in renminbi-denominated Chinese government bonds, the first such purchase by a developed nation. According to the People’s Bank of China, the applications from Japan are being processed.
When talked about the visit by Mr. Noda, Xinhua quoted Professor Xiong Lili as saying that “It has sent a signal that the new administration is willing to continue stably improving relations with China and wants to keep high level channels for exchanges.” Though the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands and exploration of oil and gas resources in the East China sea are still nagging issues between the two countries, Professor Xiong said that “Japan’s policy toward China tends to be continuing a stable bilateral relation.”
A joint survey by the Oriental Outlook, The Yomiuri Shimbun and Hankook Ilbo on the trilateral relations of China, Japan and Korea in 2011 found that 90% of the 2071 Japanese respondents considered the bilateral relations between China and Japan to be bad, while 81% of the 1058 Chinese respondents thought the same. The survey also found that 87% of the Japanese surveyed considered China untrustworthy and 79% of the Chinese respondents consider Japan untrustworthy. China’s economic development was considered to have a negative influence on Japan by 58% of the Japanese respondents.
Chinese scholars talk about Sino-US ties
Yan Xuetong, professor of political science and dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, said in his recent article on the Global Times that the world’s uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers is being replaced by a bi-multipolar system with two superpowers (China and America) and several major powers. Hu Xijin, Global Times’ editor-in-chief, said this was the first time a Chinese scholar expressed such views publicly.
People’s Daily and Xinhua also joined the debate by the end of 2011. People’s Daily quoted Yuan Peng, Director of the Institute of American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, by saying that America’s strategic move east is amid the same trend with the rest of the world, while a rising China is its main concern. Xinhua said competition between the two countries is not in the interest of any side and will probably benefit the third country, which is why a stable Sino-US relations is important for the world.
Wang Yusheng, executive director of the Strategy Research Center of China International Studies Research Fund, told China Daily that the U.S.’s strategic shift toward the East is only going to get stronger. For China, we should be wary of its efforts to contain China, but not to make a fuss about it, and the fact is that Washington has no choice but to cooperate with Beijing.
Assistant Foreign Minister Le Yucheng said at a summit on China’s foreign policies that “the Pacific Ocean is big enough to hold both China and the U.S.” “The U.S. has never left the Asian Pacific region, therefore there’s no so-called ‘returning’. China has no intentions or capacity of pushing the U.S. out of the region.” Le said.
Xi Jinping visits Vietnam
Vice President Xi Jinping paid a visit to Vietnam from December 20th to 22nd and reassured Hanoi Beijing’s determination to improve bilateral ties and to resolve territorial disputes through peaceful means.
The video of Xi meeting his Vietnamese counterpart was not aired on CCTV’s main news bulletin which was seen as a signal of Beijing’s cautiousness at home. Even though some Chinese commentators and netizens criticized Beijing for not taking a tough stance against Vietnam.
Vietnam News reported that Hanoi is ready to resolve the territorial disputes through peaceful negotiations.
China keen to improve relationship with Myanmar
China has made serious efforts to improve the relationship with Myanmar after its new civilian government vowed to carry out political reforms that might undermine Beijing’s influence.
On December 15th, China’s ambassador to Myanmar Li Junhua held a rare meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi “at her request”, which is a significant change of diplomatic tactics, say analysts. China’s top diplomat Dai Bingguo is also reported to pay a two-day visit to the Mekong River countries, a decision announced weeks after Hillary Clinton visited Myanmar.
Beijing has been a supporter of Myanmar’s military regime. China’s investment in the country reached US$12.3 billion. But ties were strained after President Thein Sein suspended the construction of the Chinese-funded Myitsone dam in September following resistance from the opposition National League for Democracy and environmentalists.
Fan Hongwei, an expert on Myanmar’s affairs from Xiamen University told the South China Morning Post that China’s previous tactic of speaking only to the junta “failed to work effectively with the changing political situation, with more parties now able to influence government decisions.”
In late November, two days before Hilary Clinton was to visit Myanmar, Xi Jinping, China’s president-in-waiting, pledged to “further bolster the comprehensive strategic partnership of co-operation” at a meeting with the visiting Myanmese military chief. Analysts believe the gesture shows Beijing’s eagerness to bolster relations amid uneasiness with Myanmar’s growing engagement with the United States.
CHINA – ECONOMY
Central Economic work conference sets tune for 2012
China’s leaders had their annual three-day Central Economic Work Conference to set policy for the year of 2012. Policy makers made an agreement to focus on maintaining fast economic growth in the midst of an “extremely grim and complicated” global outlook. At last year’s conference, Beijing put taming inflation as the key policy goal for 2011.
Another key message from the conference was to “maintain stability”. In later 2012, most of the country’s top officials will be replaced in a leadership transition. “Stability means to maintain basically steady macro-economic policy, relatively fast economic growth, stable consumer prices and social stability,” said a statement released at the close of the conference.
The conference also stressed Beijing’s intention to “unswervingly” maintain the current range of tight restrictions on the housing market until prices fall to a “reasonable level”. They also vowed to spend more on low-income housing, social welfare, agriculture and major infrastructure projects. “Government spending, rather than bank lending, may be used to boost the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors to ensure economic expansion in 2012,” Lin Yifu, the World Bank’s senior vice-president and chief economist told China Daily.
CASS researcher Liu Yuhui told Caixin the central government’s policy statements have to stress its consistency, so it may not be in accordance with the implementation in reality. At the moment, the turning point of China’s economic policy has already appeared, the fiscal policy is on the track of tightening.
A statement released after a Politburo meeting before the conference says “the country will maintain its unswerving stance on the regulation of the property market next year to make housing prices return to a reasonable level”. Top leaders also pledged to maintain controls on housing prices and emphasise the stimulation of domestic consumption. Xinhua said the decision to maintain “prudent” monetary policy and “proactive” fiscal policy served to keep inflation in check, provide stimulus to the economy, and to push adjustment of the economy’s structure, according to the South China Morning Post.
Housing policy remains tight
China Daily reported that month-on-month price falls in 70% of 70 major cities recently surveyed. In November, 49 out of 70 cities monitored report falling prices for newly built residential properties from a month earlier, while prices in another 16 cities remained unchanged.
Chinese people’s willingness to buy houses has also dropped to the lowest level since 2008 with only 19% of the respondents expecting housing prices to rise in the 2nd half year. Also, real estate is no longer a preferred choice for investment, according to a survey issued by the People’s Bank of China. The bank said the figures suggest that the tightening measures have worked.
Xia Bin, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, told the media that the tightening policy will continue for another one or two years.
Many believe purchase restrictions will finally be replaced by new policies, especially after the Central Economic Work Conference announced to continue the pilot program for property tax with the possibility of extending from Shanghai and Chongqing municipalities. Chen Jie, executive director of Fudan University’s Housing Policy Studies Center, told China Daily that property tax will play a larger role in replacing existing local government financing and narrowing the gap between rich and poor.37
The FT said “many regulators believe that the sector’s short history and a lack of other investment options has led to irrational exuberance. It is easy to forget that the market is just over a decade old and, apart from a brief dip in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis when transactions dried up, most Chinese have only seen prices double every couple of years and never seen them fall.”
CHINA – CULTURE
Han Han talks about revolution, democracy and freedom
From December 23rd to 26th, China’s most popular blogger, writer celebrity Han Han posted three articles on his blog: On Revolution (谈革命), On Democracy (说民主) and On Wanting Freedom (要自由), with each attracting more than a million hits and tens of thousands comments under the articles.
The three articles were highly praised by Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, he said on his Weibo: Han Han has written several posts, with lines like “I do not believe that a Velvet Revolution can take place in China,” and that he thinks “…the ultimate winner in a revolution must be a vicious, ruthless person,” which is why he supports “stronger reforms” for China. He also says …“When the party organization reaches a certain size, it becomes the people itself, and people form the system.” This is some real truth you rarely hear in China today!”
But apart from the backing by the Global Times, Han Han attracted wide criticism from intellectuals, journalists and current affair commentators for lacking knowledge in the fields he talked about and ignoring the democratic movements at the grassroots level in China.
One of the most widespread commentary is written by Tieh-chih Chang (张铁志), a well know cultural and political critic from Taiwan. Chang pointed out the contradictions on Han’s views on a neutral stand. Han Han “doesn’t think the Velvet Revolution will take place in China, because the quality of the Chinese people is too poor to fit for democracy.” But he underestimated the quality of the Chinese people, from what happened in Dalian and Wukan, Chinese people have proved they can unite to fight for their rights and properties, which suggest that in the future they are probably able to unite and fight for bigger issues. Besides, Han has never mentioned how to improve the quality of the people. In fact, the quality of the people can only be improved in the process of democratic practices.
Web activist Michael Anti said Han Han should read more. Xu Zhiyuan (许知远), a columnist for the FT Chineseand Yazhou Zhoukan, said, “he had so many opportunities to see the outside world, to learn more, but he refused to.” Peng Xiaoyun, a former reporter with the Southern Metropolis Weekly, said, “we shouldn’t force Han Han to think about and answer all those questions. If so, we are still making the same mistake, to let one person take the whole responsibility for us. If you are interested, why don’t you think about them yourself? Why should it be Han Han to think and speak for you?”
But all the critics agree that the most important result is that Han stirs a national debates among millions with the help of the social media like Weibo. As The Christian Science Monitor said, “his popularity means that all of a sudden the sensitive subjects he broached have moved out of the shadows of intellectual or dissident websites into the glare of the Chinese Web’s most visited portals.”
My village, My country
My Village, My Country is an essay collection by scholar and columnist Xiong Peiyun (熊培云), published in November 2011. The book focuses on Xiaobao village, where Xiong grew up, tries to draw a picture of today’s China through telling the stories of the village in transition.
A book review on the Southern Metropolis Daily invited two critics to talk about Xiong’s latest work. Publisher Lin Donglin said Xiong’s book is to “embrace his homeland” after he, a boy from the countryside, studied in the big city and abroad, is an effort of interpreting the China stories with the foreign theories. But the other critic Zuo Ye doesn’t agree. As a post-graduate student of sociology, Zuo Ye found his book is actually not about his village, but about China. Xiong’s only attempt is to find China in his village, therefore, the village is not the focus. What’s more unacceptable is that Xiong said in an interview that research may not be necessary in today’s China, therefore his book is full of “impressions” of the village that are not based on first-hand research work.
HONG KONG – POLITICS
Updates on leadership candidates
Two of the main leadership candidates were reported meeting mainland officials at the central government’s liaison office on the same day, which fuelled speculation they may be trying to lobby Beijing for direct support. Both of them confirmed to the media about the visits, but no detail was mentioned.
Analysts believe they both wanted to find out the central government’s thinking after December 11th’s election for the 1,200-member electoral college that will pick the next chief executive. Tang is widely believed to be the preferred choice by Beijing though Beijing hasn’t shown support to any candidate. The fact that Tang won the support of most Election Committee members and Leung leads him by a big margin in popularity ratings is putting Beijing in a tricky position as the central government doesn’t want to be seen backing someone that’s not favoured by Hong Kong people.
Leung recently said mainland women other than those with Hong Kong husbands should be banned from giving birth in Hong Kong’s public hospitals, while mainland wives of Hong Kong men who choose to book deliveries in public hospitals should be subject to a quota system. The ban is part of Leung’s population policy unveiled last week.Analysts believe such a stance the paper took is meant to please the city’s middle class, as most of them are against the current practice of expectant mainland women coming over the border to give birth. Leung’s competitor Henry Tang announced the same ban the next day.
In December 12th’s voting for the subsector representatives on the 1,200-strong Election Committee, Leung’s known supporters won only 50 seats, while Tang’s know supporters won 185 seats. Current affairs commentator Willy Lam said though the central government hasn’t shown its preference publicly, but the voting shows that some representatives have got Beijing’s message, the result for next year’s election is already clear.
TAIWAN – POLITICS
Cross-strait policy remains focus of debates
Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen and James Soong laid out their campaign platforms in a live TV presentation on December 23rd. According to Caixin, cross-strait policy again became the hottest topic.
Tsai reiterated “Taiwan is ROC and ROC is Taiwan”, and pointed out that Ma’s Taiwan includes the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Tibet, which is actually “One China”. Tsai also said 1992 Consensus is Ma’s flattery to the Chinese government, it’s not in the interest of Taiwan’s sovereignty and the people’s choice.
Ma told the audience that Tsai’s stance only adds uncertainty onto the cross-strait relations, which may have serious consequences. At the press conference after the TV presentation, Ma said the 1992 Consensus is “One China, different interpretations”, and “One China is ROC”.
James Soong said the 1992 Consensus is an agreement focusing on bilateral peaceful development, while “Taiwan Consensus” will earn Taiwan prosperity and dignity.
