CHINA – POLITICS
Central Economic Work Conference 2009 (Dec 5-7)
China’s national and provincial policymakers gathered in Beijing for the annual Central Economic Work Conference from Dec 5-7 to lay out strategy for next year’s economic development. The conference decided China is to maintain its fiscal and monetary policies in 2010, adjust the development pattern, expand domestic demand and promote consumer spending and private investment. China will push its exports recovery and promote a positive trade balance. Also, to speed up urbanization, the government is to relax residence permit control in small and middle-sized towns and cities.
Xinhua published an article on Dec 8th titled “To Promote Transformation: the Key Tone of 2010’s Economic Work” that quoted central government officials and famous scholars to explain the transformation of the development pattern. “China must transform its development pattern, the old pattern will lead China to nowhere.” Wang Tongsan, the director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, CASS said.
Ming Pao says as the first year after global financial crisis and the last year the 11th five-year plan, stability is viewed as the most important thing for 2010’s development, so the conference set the tune for next year as “cautiousness” and “stability”.
Chengdu house owner’s self-immolation causes nationwide debate on abolition of current demolition regulation
Tang Fuzhen, a 47 years old Chinese woman in Chengdu city set herself on fire on Nov 13, 2009, after failed 3-hour negotiation with local officials and demolition employees. She died on Nov 29 in a local hospital. Photos and videos of Tang’s self-immolation have been spread on China’s major websites in the past few weeks. The self-burning case caused a nationwide furore on the violent demolition and a huge debate on the current Urban Housing Demolition and Relocation Management Regulation (《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》). On Dec 7th, five scholars from Peking University sent the National People’s Congress (NPC) a letter, in which they said the current demolition regulation is a breach of the country’s Constitution and Property Law.
“According to the nation’s Constitution and Property Law, a citizen’s private property is inviolable – governments should only be able to confiscate someone’s home for public welfare construction – and compensation must be paid before relocation. But in the housing management regulation, the rights of property owners are not specified. The regulation also stipulates that residents must move out once the government issues a relocation permit, with a maximum period of a year and a half allowed for residents to relocate and negotiate compensation. But what happens in most cases… is local governments give developers permission to begin work and leave the companies to negotiate with residents. If residents refuse to move, they are usually forced out.”
Southern Metropolis Daily’s commentary on Dec 4th said policy makers and legislators must reconsider the current demolition regulation, formulate new land requisition regulation based on the Constitution and Property Law. Policy makers must realize that the government should uphold justice. There will be no efficiency if the so-called efficiency is achieved by sacrificing justice.
CCTV “News 1+1” program on Dec 2nd focused on Tang’s case and a few other recent violent demolition cases. Commentator Prof. Wang Xixin (one of the five Peking University professors who wrote to NPC to suggest abolition of the current demolition regulation) said “we need to follow up on these serious of urban demolition incidents to see how things can be made more civilized and fair. I think that the solution to this problem is to use the Property Rights Law as the basis for protecting property to re-evaluate the legality of the Urban Housing Demolition and Relocation Management Regulations.”
Ta Kung Pao’s commentary on Dec 13 said “considering CCTV’s special position in China, this program (News 1+1) and the opinions involved can be seen as Hu and Wen’s subtext for further promotion of political reform.”
Experts urge a change to the ‘one-child policy’.
In the past month, some China’s leading policy advisers spoke publicly to urge to adjust the three-decade old ‘one-child policy’.
Cai Fang, director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) said at a CASS forum on Nov 3rd China should gradually adjust its family planning policy for long-term interests, to extend the period during which the demographic dividend is obtained.
Economist Hu Angang published an article on Economic Information Daily (《经济参考报》) on Nov 26, said “the policy has succeeded in preventing the country’s population from growing too fast”, but now “we should implement a new population policy of ‘one-couple, two children’ to counter the problem of aging population”. “The population growth is no longer the main pressure on China’s environment.”
On Dec 4th, demographer Tian Xueyuan, former director of Population and Labor Economics, CASS published an article on People’s Daily that suggests couples in both cities and rural area should be allowed to have a second child if both of the husband and wife are only-children. Thus China can control its population and at the same time improve the quality of population and balance the sex ratio.
Xinhua published an article saying “Experts suggest to adjust family planning policy to avoid demographic dividend to end” on Dec 11th, said China’s fast economic development has been taking advantage of its cheap labor, but the unlimited labor supply may end in the near future. The recent “nanny shortage” and “migrant worker shortage” in big cities further proved experts’ worries. Wang Feng, Department of Sociology, University of California at Irvine was quoted saying China’s period of enjoying demographic dividend is going to end, the society is going to face aging problem and demographic deficit. According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs’ statistics, till the end of 2008, China has 169 million old people (60-plus), and the figure rises 10 million each year.
The Far Eastern Economic Review published an essay “China’s Family Planning Policy Goes Awry” in Dec, analyzing the history of the policy, recent social changes and demographic troubles China is facing, including end of cheap labor supply, graying population, unnatural sex ratios at birth and new family structures. “The Chinese economy still has tremendous opportunities for further growth. At the same time, we should not underestimate the magnitude of the demographic difficulties with which China will have to contend in the years ahead. Unfortunately, those difficulties do not yet seem to have been adequately recognized, either by the international community or by Chinese leaders themselves.”
High officials and scholars reflect “China’s economic development model”
Recently, high officials and scholars published a few essays on the Central Party School’s publication Study Times, to reflect the popular expression “China’s economic development model”(中国模式), said China doesn’t want to export the “models”. The authors of these essays are Li Junru, CPPCC Standing Committee member, former vice-president of the Central Party School; Zhao Qizheng, vice chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of CPPCC, former director of the State Council Information Office; Shi Xuehua, professor at Beijing Normal University and Qiu Gengtian, professor at the Central Party School.
Xinhua article said Chinese scholars don’t agree with the theory of “China’s economic development model”, which doesn’t accord with China’s reality and is also dangerous. International society shouldn’t over-react to Chinese characteristics, China doesn’t want to export the “models”, Chinese people should not simply follow others’ and instead we should focus on our own scientific development.
Ta Kung Pao said “China is becoming more and more clear when faces ‘praises’ from western countries and research institutes” when reported the scholars essays on “China’s economic development model”. Wang Yizhou, deputy director and senior research fellow in the Institute of World Economics and Politics, CASS was quoted saying that western media usually report on problems and troubles, China’s rising is also troublesome in their eyes, which reflects their journalism tradition and prejudice against China. Professor Fan Ying at China Foreign Affairs University told Ta Kung Pao that the “popularity” China has won recently is mainly because western world wants China who has 16 million population in poverty to take more “responsibility” in the global economic and climate talks.
The term’s birth was in 2004 when the United Kingdom’s Foreign Policy Centre published a paper by Joshua Cooper Ramo titled The Beijing Consensus.
New wave of web censorship
China closed 530 file-sharing websites in early Dec, including the most popular sites BTChina and VeryCD. Also China has banned individuals from registering internet domain names and launched a review of millions of existing personal websites. Till Dec 14th, China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC) has closed 699 personal sites that have pornographic names. On Dec 9th, the popular Chinese translation cooperative Yeeyan which translates latest reports on western media, has stopped publishing because of a ban from the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television (SARFT). Another censorship case is from Dec 5th, Sun TV has been blacked in mainland China due to its outspoken talk shows, Sun TV employees said they were not notified beforehand by relative government department. Earlier this year, the authorities blocked a number of social media sites, including YouTube, Facebook and Twitter and some of their local clones.
China’s shutdown of file-sharing sites is “a fight against copyright infringement” as it says, “but could be seen as another measure aimed at controlling what content the country’s Web users can find online.” AP says in its report on this. “The government says the main targets of its Web censorship are pornography, online gambling and other sites deemed harmful to society. Critics, however, say that often acts as cover for detecting and blocking sensitive political content.”
FT said “this comes against the background of a broader tightening in the political climate as the country has seen a rise in social unrest, some of which was allegedly organised or promoted through the internet, peaking in ethnic riots in July in Xinjiang that killed almost 200 people, according to the government.”
CHINA – ECONOMY
6. 8% GDP growth achievable this year, 9% expected for 2010
China will be able to achieve the 8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this year, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist with the National Bureau of Statistics. “However he warned that the Chinese economy will still face two major problems next year: slumping overseas market demand and weak driving force on domestic market.”
According to CASS’s Blue Paper on Analysis and Prediction of China’s Economics in 2010 issued on Dec 7th, China’s GDP growth of 2009 is expected to be 8.3%, in 2010, the GDP growth can be up to 9%.
7. Soaring house prices
According to CASS’s blue paper 2010, 85% of Chinese families can’t afford houses, as “house prices are 3 to 6 times greater than people’s incomes; therefore it will be very difficult to buy a house for citizens. Furthermore, the average ratio of house prices to incomes in China, 2009 will be 8.3, well beyond the scope of reasonable affordability.”
BusinessWeek’s China chief correspondent Dexter Robert pointed in his blog, “One problem is already clear: an asset bubble in China’s red hot real estate sector. Despite Beijing’s announcements that it will take measures to cool growth (in part by extending the period of a resale tax from two to five years), many expect real estate prices to keep on soaring. November saw 6.5% growth in real estate prices across 70 major cities — the fastest since July 2008 – and even China’s top developers are warning of price bubbles in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing. China is facing ‘excessive growth in home prices in some cities,’ which the government will take action against, the official Xinhua news agency reported yesterday.”
The soaring real estate prices forced the central government to intensify its efforts to cool the property market. The State Council said on Dec 14th that “the government was discussing measures and policies for the healthy development of the country’s real estate sector as house prices in some cities are rising too fast.” “China will increase supply of smaller houses at medium-and-low price levels, continue to support residential consumption for improved housing while curbing speculation. The country will also expand construction of housing projects for low-income families”, said Xinhua on Dec 15.
Global Times reported last week that “a policy was allowed to expire that had eliminated the turnover tax for those who sold homes they had owned for more than two years. From now on, the tax will instead be waived only for those selling homes they have owned at least five years.”
CHINA – CULTURE
Popularity of TV series Dwelling Narrowness (《蜗居》) and online game Happy Farm
“蜗居(humble abode, or “snail house” as some translate)” and “房奴(house slaves)” have become the most popular slang among young Chinese over the past month. The expression “蜗居” is from the latest TV series 《蜗居》Dwelling Narrowness.
Dwelling Narrowness tells the story of the Guo sisters and their struggle in the city to buy their own houses. Elder sister Haiping works hard to save for a big apartment. Younger sister Haizao throws herself into corrupted official Song Siming’s arms and becomes his mistress. After years of hard work, Haiping moves into her new apartment and opens her own business. Haizao lives in a big house sponsored by Song, falls in love with him and gets pregnant, but she soon loses everything as Song is investigated and dies in a car accident.
“The characters are simply mirroring the choices that many urban Chinese are facing everyday as the booming real estate market erodes their dreams of becoming home-owners”, says China Daily.
According to WSJ’s blog article, in a recent (unscientific) survey by Chinese Web portal Sina.com, more than 60% of 15,000 voters agreed with the statement that “the drama reflects the public’s sentiment on house slaves.” Another poll by Tencent drew more than 360,000 votes, with most agreeing with the statement that “happiness is closely related to owning a home.” People wrote on the internet, “The heroes’ struggle for a home on this show gives voice to the conundrum faced by many people who don’t have their own homes in cities… the speed of making money is lagging far behind the speed of rising home prices.” “I found our own lives depicted in this drama, everything is exposed under the sunlight. There is no way out. In the face of housing and reality, we are seriously hurting.”
At the same time, the idea of being mistress seems more acceptable among young girls. “It’s much better to be a mistress than hanging out with a poor guy!” girls yell on internet. “It’s great to have a rich boyfriend! Actually it’s not too bad to be a mistress”, Xiaofeng whose salary is less than RMB3000 told Taiwan United Daily News his girlfriend’s comment after watching Dwelling Narrowness.
To hide from the heavy pressure in real life, some young Chinese choose to play the most popular online game Happy Farm, where you can own farms and fields, look after your crops and steal others’ vegetables to sell as your own. Washington Post said research community BloggerInsight estimates that 27 million daily active users play Happy Farm across all platforms in China. Lots of people spend hours on the game everyday, ridiculous excessive playing cases have been reported by media every now and then.
“The success of Happy Farm is not just due to addiction, or even the exciting moral ambiguity of the game. It also taps into a deeper feeling-frustration at increasingly unaffordable housing and a desire to escape crowded, impersonal mainland cities.” SCMP commented on Dec 12.
A netizen wrote on Sohu’s message board, “I like Happy Farm. I enjoy cultivating, irrigating, spraying, and harvesting. My high-pressure work, and cold tall buildings makes me feel like I cannot breathe. I have to turn to virtual nature, have my own house and farm. I wish I could have a real house and farm, but it seems so far away.”
9. China to become top1 luxury products buyer next year
Management consulting firm OC&C estimates China’s luxury goods market will reach US$12 billions in 2010, China will surpass Japan and becomes the world’s biggest luxury goods market next year, China Newsweek reports “China’s Luxury” as cover story in issue 446. “Only China can save luxury sales”, WSJ’s senior writer Robert Frank says in a blog article.
But young Chinese who are still looking for jobs, struggling to buy their first apartments are annoyed by this report. “This shows the bigger rich-poor gap in China.” “Ordinary people’s income is still poor, bosses are throwing money on luxury goods.” Netizens said on a Xinhua forum (the original Xinhua link is unfunctional, the link in the footnote is from Sohu). On popular online community Tianya.cn, people responded, “Finally I understand why the people are having such a hard time.” “We should march to top1. The rich is becoming richer, the poor is getting poorer, well-done our great party!”
Guangzhou newspaper New Express published scholar Qin Xiaoying’s commentary, says “being a luxury goods superpower will do China no good. It will widen the existing rich-poor gap, worsen corruption and speculation.” China should claim it “will never be a luxury superpower”
21st Century Business Herald quoted US based consulting firm Pao Principle’s research “China Luxury Panel”, says the 30 years old “one-child policy” has created a generation of more self-centered individuals, they have strong demand for luxury products. Another consulting firm Weiner Edrich Brown Inc’s CEO Edie Wcincr said, Chinese parents and grandparents have saved big amount of money for the only children to spend.
Renowned translator Yang Xianyi died: “a cultural bridge broke…”
Renowned translator Yang Xianyi died on Nov 23 at 95. Yang was noted for translating Chinese classics into English, including the 18th century “A Dream of Red Mansions” and the selected works of 20th century writer Lu Xun. He and his wife Gladys Taylor were the first to translate Homer’s “Odyssey” from Greek into Chinese.
“A cultural bridge broke because of his death”, The Beijing News said in a commentary, “what’s more sad is there are not many talents who can repair the broken bridge.”
Southern Metropolis Daily’s commentary questioned, “Yang Xianyi passed away, how can Chinese culture walk out when translation is missing?” “When the cultural masters passed away one by one, who can fill in their positions?” According to the Translators Association of China, there are less than 100 truly qualified Chinese-English translators in China. “Maybe, the era of masters has passed. What China needs is a sustainable translating industry.”
11. Xinhua: Shocking quotations by Chinese officials 2009
Some quotations by Chinese officials got published on media or message boards and have become popular nationwide. Here Xinhua selected the “best” of the year:
“Will you speak for the party or for the people?”
– Lu Jun, vice director of Zhengzhou Urban Planning Bureau
Lu asked a reporter who went to interview him for a land trading deal.
“Why don’t you ask the people to declare their property?”
A reporter went to interview a provincial official for an official property declaration system story. The official asked the reporter why they don’t do the same thing to the people.
“Shall I also let you know if I’m going to take a poo or not?”
Mr.Liang, Guangzhou traffic officer went outrageous when a reporter questioned the transparency of the city’s highway planning. He asked the reporter, “Shall I let you know if I’m going to take a poo or not? If the poo is smelly or not?”
“Don’t go to the first and second floors, jump from the fifth floor!”
This is a Hebei township party chief’s “guidance” to a 66 years old villager who begged the official to help with her demolition deal. The official’s first response was he didn’t have time, the old lady went desperate, said “shall I jump off building?” Then the above shocking words were given.
MACAU – POLITICS
Macau blocks entry of “suspicious” HK democratic activist before anniversary
On Dec 20th, Macau will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of Macau SAR and hold the inauguration ceremony of the third-term Macau SAR Government. China’s president Hu Jintao and HKSAR CE Donald Tsang will attend the ceremonies.
But on Dec 16th, 3 days before Hu’s arrive, Hong Kong Democratic Party Southern District councillor Chai Man-hon was denied entry to Macau because he’s suspected to “offend public security” during his trip. Chai had planned to go sightseeing with his parents to celebrate his father’s birthday and stay overnight. “I don’t know what they (Macau side) are talking about!” Chai told Apple Daily in a video interview. Some commentators think the central government is trying to intimidate people and stop people joining the democratic camp.
TAIWAN
KMT’s setback in “3-in-1” elections
In Taiwan’s recent “3-in-1” local government administrator and representative elections, KMT lost key county Yilan to its competitor DPP. Though KMT grabbed 121 of 121 seats in the elections, DPP’s supporting rate went up in almost all the counties. “The setback is compromising not only the KMT’s chances in next year’s elections, but also Ma’s re-election bid.”
Ta Kung Pao’s commentary says the setback may affect the cross-strait relations, as Ma government will be keen to win public supports for the following elections, therefore he may act conservative on some sensitive cross-strait issues.
Taiwan’s filmmaking enters “post-Cape No.7 era”
Last year, Taiwanese movie “Cape No.7” created a big explosion of interest and popularity on the island, swept 6 top prizes at the 45th Golden Horse Awards, also became a big box office winner in Taiwanese history following Titanic with $23.25m.
This year, Taiwanese director Leon Dai’s No Puedo Vivir Sin Ti (《不能没有你》,Can’t Live Without You) won 4 top prizes at the Golden Horse Awards, local media expects it to become another “Cape No.7”.
Leon Dai told Southern Metropolis Daily that Cape No.7 has made a huge impact on Taiwan’s film industry, it showed possibilities on all aspects of filmmaking. “Post-Cape No.7 era” movies have just started coming out. We have to wait for another one or two years to see how much it has influenced Taiwan’s film industry. Dai said in his acceptance speech, “I hope in the future, Taiwanese film workers can explore further on what film is, the relationship between film and this world. It might not be that interesting if there’s only one or two possibilities.”
